Serbia Election 25 October 2026: Date, UK Times and Predictions

Serbia holds an early parliamentary election on Sunday 25 October 2026, with polling stations open from 07:00 to 20:00 Serbian time, which is 06:00 to 19:00 UK time (GMT), as Serbia and the UK both end summer time in the early hours of that Sunday. At 07:33 UK time on 21 October 2026, the versus prediction on whether Aleksandar Vučić: United Serbia wins the most seats showed 68.5p for Yes, the market's estimate of a 68.5% chance.

Voters choose one of 18 lists for the 250 seats of the National Assembly. A winning answer settles at 100p and a losing one at 0p, separate prices need not add up to 100p, and versus does not say who will win (how to read market probabilities). This guide is for readers in Great Britain.

Calling the vote, and the clocks

Serbia's President calls parliamentary elections, and an early one is called at the moment the Assembly is dissolved, says the guide of the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK). RIK's timetable of 11 September 2026 says the decision calling this one (Official Gazette No. 85/26) took effect on publication on 9 September, and RIK's news of 13 October calls the vote early.

Voting runs without a break (Article 91 of the 2022 election law), and anyone at the station at closing time may still vote, RIK's voter guide says. UK clocks go back at 02:00 BST on 25 October (GOV.UK) and Serbian clocks at 03:00 local time (Law on Time Calculation), both at 01:00 GMT, so Serbia stays one hour ahead all day. RIK counted 6,450,523 registered voters on 9 October and reported 8,392 polling stations, 93 of them abroad on their own hours (RIK, 12 October 2026).

How the 250 seats are shared

Serbia is one constituency and each voter has one vote, cast by circling the number of one list (Articles 5 and 94). The lists are closed: within ten days of the final report, RIK gives each list's seats to its candidates in printed order (Article 130).

• Threshold. A list needs 3% of the votes of everyone who voted, so spoilt ballots are part of the base (Article 128).
• Minority lists. Lists with national minority status are exempt, and below 3% their quotients are raised by 35% (Article 140), which RIK notes does not ensure a seat.
• D'Hondt. Each qualifying list's votes are divided by 1, 2, 3 and so on up to 250, and the 250 largest results win seats (Article 129).

Who is on the ballot

RIK fixed 18 lists on 8 October 2026, numbered in the order it proclaimed them (collective electoral list). Seven feature in versus predictions (names translated from Serbian and shortened, RIK's dashes shown as colons):

• No. 1 Aleksandar Vučić: United Serbia
• No. 2 Ivica Dačić's Factor of Stability!
• No. 3 Student List: Students Win
• No. 4 Rasim Ljajić's Humane, a national minority list
• No. 5 Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians: Dr Bálint Pásztor, a national minority list
• No. 8 Authentic Right: Dr Miloš Jovanović
• No. 9 European Serbia, with Marinika Tepić and Zdravko Ponoš in its name

In December 2023 the list then called Aleksandar Vučić: Serbia Must Not Stop won 129 of the 250 seats (RIK final report, 12 January 2024).

What the versus predictions ask

Each prediction below lists 23:59 UK time (GMT) on Sunday 25 October as its end date (00:59 on Monday in Serbia), when trading is due to stop, and settles once the result is clear under its rules (when markets close). Reliable reporting decides, RIK's official results settle any doubt, and turnout goes by RIK alone. If nothing is definite by 11:59 pm New York time on 31 March 2027 (04:59 UK time, BST, on Thursday 1 April 2027), a fallback applies. Readings are from 07:33 UK time on 21 October 2026.

• Most seats. Will Vučić's United Serbia win the most seats? ranks lists by seats, then valid votes, then alphabetically, and counts only seats won under the name on the ballot. The page showed 68.5p for Yes; the fallback is No.
• United Serbia's share. How much of the vote will Vučić's United Serbia get? has six bands for the list's share of valid votes, from below 35% to 55% or more. Votes for allied lists are not added, and a share on a dividing line goes to the higher band. The page showed 13.5p for 50% to under 55%; the fallback is below 35%.
• Student List share. Will the Student List reach 50% of valid votes? showed 12.8p for Yes. Sister predictions cover under 30% and bands of 30 to 35%, 35 to 40%, 40 to 45% and 45 to 50%, each including its lower edge. Titles naming 31 March 2027 still concern this vote: that is the fallback date, when the under 30% prediction would settle Yes and the others No.
• Winning margin. Eight predictions measure the gap, in percentage points of valid votes, between the top two lists, with United Serbia first by under 2, 2 to under 5, 5 to under 10 or 10 or more, or the Student List first by under 2, 2 to under 5, 5 to under 10 or 10 or more. If a third list tops the vote, all eight settle No. The page for United Serbia by 10 or more showed 18.5p for Yes.
• Turnout. What share of Serbian voters will turn out? takes RIK's official turnout, votes cast over voters entitled to vote, in five bands from below 58% to 70% or above. The page showed 32.5p for 62% to below 66% and 40p for 66% to below 70%; the fallback is below 58%. At the 2023 election, RIK counted 3,820,746 voters at the polls out of 6,500,666 registered, just under 59%.
• Third place. Six predictions ask which list comes third by seats, with votes and then the alphabet breaking ties: European Serbia, Authentic Right, Ivica Dačić's list, the Hungarian alliance, Rasim Ljajić's list and the Student List. Each falls back to No.

The count and what follows, in UK time

• Thursday 22 October, 23:00 (BST): campaign silence begins at midnight in Serbia, and no estimate of the result may be published until polls close, RIK's timetable says.
• Sunday 25 October, 06:00 to 19:00 (GMT): voting. No polling station may announce its result before 20:00 Serbian time (Article 91).
• Preliminary results: in 2023, RIK adopted them at a session on the evening after polling day, with 96.68% of polling stations processed (RIK, 18 December 2023).
• Sunday 25 October, 23:59 (GMT): the predictions' end date.
• Thursday 29 October, 19:00 (GMT): local commissions' summary reports are due, 96 hours after polls close, unless appeals are pending. RIK then has up to 96 hours from receiving them all to publish the final report in the Official Gazette. Repeat voting can delay it: in 2023 that report came 26 days after polling day.
• Within 30 days of the final results: the new Assembly first sits (Article 101 of the Constitution).

Before you trade

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Frequently asked questions

What time do polls close in Serbia in UK time?

At 19:00 UK time (GMT) on Sunday 25 October 2026, which is 20:00 in Serbia. They open at 06:00 UK time.

Who is standing in Serbia's 2026 parliamentary election?

18 lists, on RIK's collective list of 8 October 2026. The first three on the ballot are Aleksandar Vučić: United Serbia, Ivica Dačić's Factor of Stability! and Student List: Students Win.

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