Israel Election 27 October 2026: UK Polling Times and Predictions

Israel elects its 26th Knesset on Tuesday 27 October 2026, and most polling stations are open from 7am to 10pm Israel time, which is 05:00 to 20:00 UK time (GMT). At 07:32 UK time on 21 October 2026, the versus prediction on which list wins the most seats showed 71.5p for Yashar and 27.5p for Likud.

A price is the market's estimate of a chance, so 30p means 30%; the answer that comes true settles at 100p, and separate answers need not add up to 100p (how to read market probabilities). versus does not say who will win; this guide is for readers in Great Britain.

Polling day on a UK clock

The Central Elections Committee's timetable, updated on 6 September 2026, puts polling day on 27 October, or 16 Heshvan 5787. That is the third Tuesday of Heshvan, the day its guide to the electoral system, updated on 22 September 2026, names for an election at the end of a Knesset's four-year term. Israel's Ministry of the Interior said on 23 March 2026 that its summer time ends on the night before Sunday 25 October, when UK clocks also go back (GOV.UK), so on polling day Israel is two hours ahead.

• 05:00 to 20:00 UK time (GMT): most polling stations, open 7am to 10pm in Israel, according to the committee's questions and answers, updated on 7 October 2026.
• 06:00 to 18:00 UK time (GMT): localities with fewer than 350 voters, homes for the elderly, hospitals and prisons, which vote from 8am to 8pm.

How the 120 seats are filled

Israel votes as a single constituency, the committee's guide explains: each voter picks one candidate list, and its seats go to the names at the top, in the order the list was filed. A list needs 3.25% of the vote for any seat, and the 120 seats are shared in proportion among the lists above that line. In 2022 Meretz took 3.16% of valid votes and won none, the committee's final official results show.

The six lists in the main prediction

The committee approved the candidate lists on 27 September 2026, its Hebrew list page says (updated 12 October), and each of the six answers of the main prediction can be matched to one of them. In the spelling of the committee's English page, which still words the lists as submitted, they are Likud, headed by Binyamin Netanyahu for Prime Minister; Be'Yahad (Hebrew for together), headed by Naftali Bennett, which we take to be the answer the prediction calls Together, a matching neither the committee's pages nor the prediction's rules make; Yashar! With Eizenkot for Prime Minister, Uniting Israel; Shas; HaDemocratim (The Democrats), headed by Yair Golan; and Otzma Yehudit, headed by Itamar Ben Gvir.

Seven versus predictions, in plain words

Readings are from 07:32 UK time on 21 October 2026.

• Most seats. Which party tops Israel's Knesset election? counts seats only, with a tie going to the list with more valid votes and then to alphabetical order. Consistent reporting decides and the committee's official results settle doubt; with no definite result by 04:59 UK time (BST) on 1 July 2027, it goes to an Other fallback outside the six answers.
• Likud's seats. How many Knesset seats will Likud win? has bands of under 20, 20 to 24, 25 to 29, 30 to 34 and 35 or more, counting any joint list Likud runs on. Reporting decides and the committee's results settle doubt; if nothing is definite by 03:59 UK time (GMT) on 1 November 2027, the lowest band wins. Likud won 32 seats in 2022.
• Turnout. How high will Israel's election turnout be? divides votes cast by eligible voters, using the Israeli government's final official figures, the committee's included, rather than updates during the day. Six bands run from under 66% to 74% or more, a figure on a dividing line goes up a band, and under 66% wins if nothing is definite by 04:59 UK time (BST) on 1 July 2027. The committee's final figure for 2022 was 70.63%. The page showed 18.5p for 70 to 72% and 38p for 72 to 74%.
• Going ahead. Will Israel's election go ahead as planned? is Yes if voting happens nationwide in Israel on 27 October, even with trouble at some stations, and No if it is held earlier or not at all by the end of 27 October in New York (03:59 UK time, GMT, on 28 October). Votes cast at missions abroad on 15 October do not count, and credible reports decide.
• Hung Knesset. Will Israel's vote leave a hung Knesset? is Yes only if fresh elections are called, by dissolution or official announcement, before any government wins a confidence vote; a failed attempt to form one is not enough. A government approved first, or neither event by 04:59 UK time (BST) on 1 July 2027, means No, with official Israeli information as the main source. The page showed 35.5p for Yes.
• Prime minister. Who ends up as Israel's PM after the coming election? settles on whoever becomes prime minister after this vote, on official Israeli information and credible reports. It ends at 23:59 UK time (GMT) on 31 December 2026, and its brief rules do not say what happens if nobody has taken office by then (how to verify market rules). The page showed 51p for Gadi Eizenkot, 27.5p for Benjamin Netanyahu and 12.5p for Naftali Bennett.
• Government by 31 December. Will the Knesset approve a new government by 31 Dec? needs a successful confidence vote and the new government in place by 04:59 UK time (GMT) on 1 January 2027, which is 11:59pm on 31 December in New York. A failed vote, a no-confidence motion or a caretaker staying on does not count, and Knesset records decide first. The page showed 48p for Yes.

From the count to a cabinet

• Tuesday 27 October, 00:00 UK time (GMT): end date of the most-seats, Likud seats and hung Knesset predictions, five hours before polls open; trading is due to stop, and each settles later under its rules (when markets close).
• Tuesday 27 October, 20:00 UK time (GMT): polls close. Projections broadcast then are broadcasters' estimates, not results.
• Wednesday 28 October, 03:59 UK time (GMT): end date of the turnout and going-ahead predictions.
• Wednesday 4 November: official results, due eight days after the vote under section 11 of Basic Law: The Knesset, the timetable says.
• By about 11 November: Basic Law: The Government gives President Isaac Herzog seven days from the results to ask a willing Knesset member to form a government, after consulting the lists that won seats (President's office).
• Then 28 days, plus up to 14: the nominee's time, followed if needed by 28 days for a second member and 14 for one named by a Knesset majority. If all fail, the Knesset is treated as dissolved and a new election follows, the case the hung Knesset prediction treats as Yes.
• About 23 December: a first nominee named on 11 November who used all 42 days would reach that date, and the Knesset then has up to seven days to hold the confidence vote.

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Frequently asked questions

What time do Israel's polls close in UK time?

Most polling stations close at 10pm Israel time on Tuesday 27 October 2026, which is 20:00 UK time (GMT). They open at 05:00 UK time.

What is the electoral threshold in Israel?

3.25% of the vote. Lists below it win no seats, and the 120 seats are shared in proportion among the lists above it.

When will Israel have a new government?

Not before the official results on 4 November 2026. The first nominee then has 28 days, extendable by up to 14, and a government takes office only once the Knesset votes confidence in it.

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