Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 20-24 at a 37% chance, ahead of 25-29 at 28% and <20 at 15%.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resulting merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 1, 2027, 04:59 CET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
