Brazil Presidential Runoff 2026: Polls, UK Times and Predictions

Nobody knows yet who will win Brazil's presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026: Datafolha's national poll published on 16 October put Flávio Bolsonaro on 51% and Lula on 49% of valid votes; among all respondents it was 47% to 45%, which the pollster calls a statistical tie. At 08:00 UK time on 21 October 2026, the versus prediction on who wins and by how much showed 38.5p for a Flávio win by under 4 points, 36.5p for a Flávio win by 4 to 8 points and 16.5p for a Lula win by under 4 points.

Voting ends at 17:00 Brasília time, which is 20:00 UK time (GMT), and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) publishes results from then. A price is the market's estimate of a chance (25p means 25%): the answer that comes true settles at 100p, the rest at 0p, and separate prices need not add up to 100p (how to read market probabilities). versus does not say who will win, and this guide is for readers in Great Britain.

Two names left on the ballot

Under article 77 of Brazil's constitution, a first-round winner needs more than half of the valid votes, blank and spoilt ballots aside; otherwise the top two meet again on the last Sunday of October. The TSE's official count of the 4 October vote, with all 499,248 polling sections in, gave Flávio Bolsonaro 56,104,503 votes (47.03% of valid votes) and Lula 53,879,538 (45.16%), 1.87 points apart and both short of half (TSE results).

The TSE's candidate registry lists Flávio Bolsonaro (registered as Flavio Nantes Bolsonaro) as number 22 for the Liberal Party (PL), with Alfredo Gaspar as running mate and senator as his occupation, and Lula as number 13 for the Workers' Party (PT), with Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Socialist Party as running mate. Lula has been president since 1 January 2023, the presidency's website says.

The Band debate and the 16 October poll

The candidates met in a live TV debate on the evening of Sunday 18 October, hosted by the broadcaster Band, which had announced a 20:00 Brasília start (00:00 UK time, BST, on Monday 19 October). Band's full recording, posted on its Band Jornalismo YouTube channel on 19 October, says the two were face to face for the first time. The versus prediction Will Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro debate on live TV by 24 Oct? had its end date at 23:59 UK time (BST) on 18 October and is now settled.

Datafolha's poll predates the debate: 2,520 face-to-face interviews on 13 and 14 October. Its margin of error is 2 points either way, and 93% of respondents said they had fully decided their runoff vote (Datafolha release).

How the margin answers settle

Who wins Brazil's runoff, and by how much? has eight answers, each pairing a candidate with a margin band: under 4 points, then 4 to 8, 8 to 12, and 12 or more. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the two candidates' shares of valid votes (blank and spoilt ballots count for neither), and a margin exactly on a dividing line goes to the band above, so a hypothetical 52% to 48% result would settle the winner's 4 to 8 answer Yes.

The result comes from the TSE's official count once final, and a recount makes settlement wait; agreement among credible reports can settle it, but if doubt remains only TSE results decide. If the two tie exactly, or if no definite result exists by 23:59 New York time on 30 June 2027 (04:59 UK time, BST, on 1 July), every answer settles No. At 08:00 UK time on 21 October 2026 the page showed:

• Flávio wins: 38.5p for under 4 points, 36.5p for 4 to 8, 6.5p for 8 to 12 and 1.1p for 12 or more.
• Lula wins: 16.5p for under 4 points, 0.9p for 4 to 8, 0.2p for 8 to 12 and 0.2p for 12 or more.

Turnout in five bands

Five Yes or No predictions split runoff turnout into bands: below 76%, 76% to 78%, 78% to 80%, 80% to 82% and 82% or more. Turnout means every ballot cast, blank and spoilt ones included, divided by all registered voters, from the TSE's official second-round figures; a figure exactly on a dividing line goes to the band above, and if no definitive figure exists by the same cut-off, the rules treat turnout as below 76%.

Voting is compulsory, the TSE says on its page on missed votes, and article 14 of the constitution makes it so for literate citizens aged 18 to 70. In the first round the TSE counted 125,275,835 voters out of 158,745,502 on the roll, a turnout of 78.92%; only the second round counts here. At 08:00 UK time on 21 October 2026 the pages showed 5.4p for Yes on below 76%, 21p on 76% to 78%, 58.5p on 78% to 80%, 15.5p on 80% to 82% and 2.4p on 82% or more.

The dates still to come

• Wednesday 21 to Saturday 24 October: g1, the Globo group's news site, reported on 21 October that Quaest would publish polls on the 21st and 24th and Datafolha on the 22nd and 24th, a schedule not confirmed on the pollsters' own sites. No versus prediction settles on a poll.
• Friday 23 October: the last day for radio and TV debates, which may not run past midnight Brasília time (04:00 UK time, BST, on Saturday 24 October), under the TSE calendar. TV Globo's debate, with both candidates invited, is due to start at 21:20 Brasília time (01:20 UK time, BST, on Saturday 24 October), its news site g1 said on 19 October. No live versus prediction settles on it.
• Sunday 25 October, 11:00 to 20:00 UK time (GMT): voting runs from 08:00 to 17:00 Brasília time, the clock used nationwide, says the TSE's 2026 election page. Brasília is three hours behind Greenwich with no summer time (Law No. 12,876 of 2013, Decree No. 9,772 of 2019), and UK clocks go back at 02:00 BST that morning (GOV.UK). Anyone already queuing at 17:00 can still vote, the TSE said on 16 October.
• From 20:00 UK time (GMT) on 25 October: the TSE publishes results as they are counted (TSE results page), with blank and spoilt votes and abstentions, its calendar says. The predictions settle on the final official count, not the running one.
• Monday 26 October, 03:59 UK time (GMT): the end date of the margin and turnout predictions, when trading is due to stop (when markets close); each settles once its result is clear under its rules (what market resolution means).
• Tuesday 5 January 2027: the winner takes office in a session of Congress, under Constitutional Amendment No. 111 of 2021 (amendment text), which replaced 1 January from this election on.

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Frequently asked questions

What time do Brazil's runoff polls close in the UK, and when do results come?

Polls close at 17:00 Brasília time on Sunday 25 October 2026, which is 20:00 UK time (GMT), when the TSE starts publishing results. Voting opens at 11:00 UK time.

Have Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro debated before the runoff?

They met in a live debate on Band on the evening of Sunday 18 October, Brasília time, and TV Globo has invited both to a second debate on Friday 23 October, its news site g1 said on 19 October.

When does Brazil's next president take office?

On Tuesday 5 January 2027, in a session of Congress, under a 2021 amendment that moved the date from 1 January.

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