Prediction
Answer Options
As of 23 October 2026, 23:38 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 74 percent or more at a 36% chance, ahead of 72 to 74 percent at 27% and 70 to 72 percent at 21%.
Resolves to the answer whose range contains the official national voter turnout rate of Israel's Knesset election of 27 October 2026, meaning the number of votes cast divided by the number of eligible voters. Use the official election results published by the Israeli government, including the Central Elections Committee; the final results for the whole election decide, and sampled turnout updates published on election day do not. Only when official government results are unavailable is the broad agreement of reliable reports on the final turnout rate used. The ranges are: under 66 percent; 66 percent up to under 68 percent; 68 percent up to under 70 percent; 70 percent up to under 72 percent; 72 percent up to under 74 percent; and 74 percent or more. A turnout that falls exactly on a boundary belongs to the higher range. If the election results are not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM US Eastern Time, the under-66-percent answer wins. Exactly one answer wins: these ranges cover every possible turnout rate.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
