Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 23 October 2026, 23:36 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
This prediction covers the parliamentary election for the 250 seats in Serbia's National Assembly, with the vote scheduled for 25 Oct 2026, local time. YES if Student List – Students Win finishes third when lists are ordered by seats won. Anything else is NO. Lists are ranked by seats won first. Where lists hold the same seat count, the larger total of valid votes places higher. Should that still leave a tie, the list whose name comes first alphabetically ranks higher. Seats are credited as printed on the ballot and in official proclamations, whatever the parties behind a list or how its members sit later in the chamber. If the results are not definitively known by 23:59 ET on 31 Mar 2027, it settles NO. Consistent reports from reputable news outlets decide; if they are unclear, the official results of the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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