Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 23 October 2026, 23:37 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 22% chance and No at 78%.
This prediction is about Serbia's vote for the 250-seat National Assembly, scheduled for 25 October 2026. The margin is the gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the lists placed first and second; a list's share is its valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. A list only gets the votes that the Republic Electoral Commission credits to that named list; votes credited to any other list or label are never added, whatever cooperation, endorsements, coalition deals or later parliamentary groups exist. United Serbia means the list Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia; Student List means the list Student List – Students Win. YES if United Serbia wins the most valid votes and leads the second-placed list by at least 5 but under 10 percentage points; otherwise NO. A margin landing exactly on the line between two ranges belongs to the higher range. If any other list wins the most valid votes, the answer is NO. If two or more lists are level on the most valid votes, only the level list whose name comes first alphabetically counts as first, with a margin under 2 points. If the outcome is still not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Consistent credible news reporting on the outcome decides; where it is unclear, only the official figures of Serbia's Republic Electoral Commission count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
