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As of 12 October 2026, 09:21 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
Rank the electoral lists in the Serbian National Assembly election scheduled for 25 October 2026, which elects 250 members. Seat totals set the order first. Equal seat totals are separated by valid votes, with more votes ranking higher; any remaining tie uses the alphabetical order of the list names. YES if the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians list led by Dr Bálint Pásztor ends up in third position; otherwise NO. Each list is treated as named on the ballot and in official declarations, irrespective of its constituent parties or later parliamentary regrouping. If the definitive result is unavailable at 11:59 PM ET on 31 March 2027, the answer is NO. Agreement among reliable election reports is the initial evidence. Any ambiguity is decided exclusively by the official results of the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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