Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 23 October 2026, 23:35 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 23% chance and No at 77%.
YES if the electoral list Student List – Students Win takes 35% to under 40% of the valid votes in the election for Serbia's 250-seat National Assembly, set for 25 October 2026; any other share is NO. The share is the votes that official results credit to that named list, divided by all valid votes cast. Votes credited to any other list or designation are never added, whatever cooperation, endorsements, coalition deals or later parliamentary-group arrangements exist. A share exactly on a bracket line belongs to the higher bracket. If the results are still not definitively known on 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the lowest bracket (under 30%) is treated as the result: YES only for that bracket and NO for all others. Broad agreement among reliable news reports decides. Whenever credible reporting leaves the result ambiguous, only the official results of Serbia's Republic Electoral Commission decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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