UK CPI Inflation in 2026: Latest Rate and How the Prediction Settles

UK CPI inflation was 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) release of 16 September 2026, and the next figure, for September, is due at 7:00am on 21 October 2026. On versus, at 08:09 UK time on 8 October 2026, the band for a September rate of 3.4% to 3.6% was priced at 58p, a 58% chance, the highest of its six bands.

versus has two live predictions on UK inflation. What will the UK's annual inflation rate be?, the September prediction in this guide, settles on that 21 October figure. Where will UK inflation end up?, the December prediction, is a longer-dated one that settles on the figure due on 20 January 2027.

The Short Answer

• The latest official figure is 3.1%. ONS says the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9% in July.
• Two predictions, two dates. The September prediction settles on the release of 21 October 2026. The December prediction is about December, not the whole year, and settles on the release ONS has scheduled for 20 January 2027.
• Both read CPI to one decimal place. The figure in ONS's CPI 12-month rate column is the one that counts, not CPIH.
• You can lose the whole amount. A winning contract settles at 100p and a losing one at 0p.

What ONS Says About the Latest Figures

These details come from the ONS bulletin Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026, published on 16 September 2026 and checked on 8 October 2026.

• The headline: CPI rose 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9% the month before. CPIH, the measure that adds owner occupiers' housing costs, was 3.3%.
• The driver: ONS says transport, particularly motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution to the change.
• Month to month: CPI rose 0.5% in August 2026, compared with a rise of 0.3% in August 2025. A bigger monthly rise than a year earlier pushes the annual rate up.
• Core inflation: CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was 2.6%, unchanged from July.

The 12-month rate has not been steady this year. In ONS's table it was 3.4% in December 2025, then 3.0% in January 2026, 3.3% in March, 2.8% in April and 2.6% in June, before rising to 2.9% in July and 3.1% in August. The biggest move in a single month was 0.5 percentage points, from 3.3% in March to 2.8% in April.

What CPI Measures

The Bank of England explains it plainly on its inflation page. Each month ONS collects around 180,000 prices of about 700 items, a shopping basket, to work out CPI. The inflation rate compares that basket with its cost a year earlier, so inflation of 3% means prices are about 3% higher on average than a year ago. CPI is also the measure the Bank targets: the Government has set the Bank a target of 2%.

Two details matter here. First, CPIH is a different measure from CPI and was 3.3% in August, so check which column a figure comes from. Second, "CPI" is also the name of a separate US measure with its own basket, so a UK reading says nothing about a prediction on that one.

How the Predictions Settle

Every market on versus names the source that settles it before you trade (what market resolution means explains the idea). Both predictions settle on the CPI 12-month rate that ONS publishes, read to one decimal place. Each answer is a band of that rate: the band containing the published figure settles at 100p and the others at 0p.

• What will the UK's annual inflation rate be? settles on the figure for September 2026 in ONS's release due at 7:00am on 21 October 2026. It has six bands, from 2.7% or less to 4.0% or more. A band includes both of its end values, so a published 3.3% sits in 3.1% to 3.3%, not in the next band up. If ONS is late, the prediction waits for its next monthly report, and if September still has not appeared by then it falls back on the latest month ONS has published.
• Where will UK inflation end up? settles on the figure for December 2026, which ONS lists for 7:00am on 20 January 2027 (release page), as soon as the data is published. On 8 October 2026 it had eight bands, from below 1.0% to 4.5% or more, and none covers 3.0% to 3.4%, so check the list against the rules before you choose an answer. If December's data is late, it settles on the latest figure available.

At 08:09 UK time on 8 October 2026, the September prediction priced 3.4% to 3.6% at 58p, 3.1% to 3.3% at 21.5p and 3.7% to 3.9% at 16.3p, and the December prediction priced 3.5% to 3.9% at 55p and 4.0% to 4.4% at 6.9p. Prices of separate answers do not have to add up to 100p, and a price is the market's estimate at that moment, not a promise.

Dates to Watch

• 21 October 2026, 7:00am: ONS publishes September inflation. It settles the September prediction and is the first new reading since August for the December one. ONS's table shows CPI unchanged on the month in September 2025 (0.0%), so a rise on the month this September would push the 12-month rate up from 3.1% and a fall would pull it down. That is arithmetic, not a forecast.
• 5 November 2026: the Bank of England announces its next decision on Bank Rate, which its page shows at 3.75%, and publishes its Monetary Policy Report. In its September minutes it expected CPI inflation to rise to around 3¾% in the last three months of 2026, based on energy prices as at 14 September. Our guide to the Bank of England decision on 5 November also tracks the 21 October ONS release.
• 18 November and 16 December 2026, 7:00am: ONS publishes October and November inflation. Neither settles a prediction, but each is a fresh reading that can move prices.
• 20 January 2027, 7:00am: ONS publishes December inflation, the figure the December prediction settles on.

Release dates can change, so check the ONS release calendar before you rely on them.

A Worked Example

Say one band on the December prediction trades at 20p. You put 400p into it, which buys 20 contracts. The 2% transaction fee is added on top, 8p, so 408p leaves your balance. The fee is shown before you confirm.

• If the December figure lands in your band: the 20 contracts settle at 100p each, 2,000p in total.
• If it lands in any other band: they settle at 0p and the 408p is gone.
• If you sell first: at 8p, the 20 contracts would give you 160p back, a loss, but a smaller one than a settlement at 0p.

The most this position could cost you was the 408p you saw before confirming. There is no leverage and no margin call.

Checks Before You Open a Position

1. Read the rules first. They say which ONS release counts, which column to read and what happens if a release is late.
2. Be clear what is measured. It is the CPI 12-month rate for September or December 2026, depending on the prediction, not CPIH, not a yearly average and not the latest monthly reading. Look at how each band is written and whether the list covers the figure you expect.
3. Decide what you are prepared to lose in full. The stake and the 2% fee are shown before you confirm, and together they are the most the position can cost you.

Before you trade

versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143, which you can check on the Commission's public register. A 2% transaction fee is added on top of the stake and shown before you confirm, and while a market is open you can sell at the current price. Positions settle in ordinary money, not cryptocurrency, and customer money is held separately from company money.

Safer Play is built into the app: deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time out and self exclusion, alongside GAMSTOP. The safer play page explains each tool, how it works follows one position from opening to settlement, and how to verify market rules goes through the rules line by line. Only put in what you are comfortable losing. Prediction markets are entertainment with real money at stake, not a way to make money.

Frequently asked questions

What is the UK inflation rate now?

ONS says CPI inflation was 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9% in July. That is the latest official figure as of 8 October 2026, and the next one, for September, is due at 7:00am on 21 October 2026.

When is the next UK inflation figure?

ONS publishes September inflation at 7:00am on 21 October 2026. October inflation follows on 18 November, November inflation on 16 December and December inflation on 20 January 2027.

Is UK inflation going up?

The 12-month CPI rate rose from 2.6% in June 2026 to 2.9% in July and 3.1% in August. In its minutes of 17 September 2026 the Bank of England expected it to reach around 3¾% in the last three months of 2026, based on energy prices at 14 September. That is an expectation, not a result.

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