Fed Interest Rate Decision 28 October 2026: UK Time and Predictions

The US Federal Reserve announces its next interest rate decision at 2:00pm New York time on Wednesday 28 October 2026, which is 18:00 UK time, and the target range for its main rate is 3.75% to 4.00%. On versus at 07:54 UK time on 10 October 2026, the prediction on how many committee members will vote against that decision showed 27p for none, 17p for one, 19.5p for two, 29.5p for three and 5.6p for four or more.

This guide is for readers in Great Britain, so times are UK times. Its facts were checked at the official sources on 10 October 2026, and it is not a forecast or advice.

The decision in UK time

The Fed's meeting calendar lists a two-day meeting on 27 and 28 October, and its October 2026 calendar page puts the decision at 2:00pm and the press conference at 2:30pm on 28 October, with no time zone named; the 16 September statement was timed 2:00 p.m. EDT, New York summer time. UK clocks go back on 25 October (GOV.UK) and US clocks on 1 November (NIST), so New York is four hours behind the UK that week, not five. The statement is due at 18:00 UK time (GMT) and the press conference at 18:30.

Where the rate stands

On 16 September the Fed's rate-setting body, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), raised the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, setting its target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. That is the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. The Fed's policy rate table shows the new range took effect on 17 September, after 3.50% to 3.75%, the only change in 2026.

The statement said inflation remains elevated. The minutes, published on 7 October, say all participants backed the increase and most thought another one would likely be appropriate by the end of the year, while stressing that decisions depend on incoming information.

Who votes, and what a dissent is

The FOMC has twelve voting members: the seven governors of the Federal Reserve Board, the president of the New York Fed and four of the other eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who rotate yearly (the Fed's page on the committee). A dissent is a vote against the decision, and the statement names each member who voted against and what they preferred. The Fed's statements for the six 2026 meetings give these counts, a record and not a forecast:

• 28 January: range held at 3.50% to 3.75%, 10 to 2. Both dissenters wanted a quarter-point cut.
• 18 March: held, 11 to 1. The dissenter wanted a cut.
• 29 April: held, 8 to 4. One wanted a cut; three backed the hold but objected to wording that leaned towards easing.
• 17 June: held, 12 to 0.
• 29 July: held, 9 to 3. The presidents of the Cleveland, Minneapolis and Dallas Reserve Banks, the same three who objected to the wording in April, wanted a quarter-point increase.
• 16 September: raised to 3.75% to 4.00%, 12 to 0.

What the versus predictions show

The lead prediction, How many Fed policymakers will dissent on 28 Oct?, counts the members the FOMC statement records as voting against the rate decision at the 27 and 28 October meeting. The matching answer settles at 100p and the other four at 0p. The rules count only dissent on the rate decision and say no other kind of dissent is included; they do not spell out how a vote like April's, cast against the statement's wording while backing the rate, would be read, so check the rules before you trade. A delayed statement is replaced by the first official release with the count, and the page lists its close as 23:59 UK time on 28 October. A price is the market's estimate of a chance, so 27p for none reads as a 27% chance (how to read market probabilities).

versus has no prediction on the 28 October rate level alone. Three others take in that meeting on the way to the December decision, with readings from 07:54 UK time on 10 October 2026 and closes in UK time (GMT):

• Will the Fed lift the top of its rate range by 9 Dec? is Yes if the top of the range goes up at any time between 17 September and the end of the December meeting, so a rise on 28 October would count but the 16 September rise does not. The Fed's own record of rate changes decides, and the page lists its close as 00:00 UK time on 9 December, before the December statement. The page showed 77.5p for Yes and 22.5p for No.
• How high will the Fed's top rate be on 9 Dec? settles on the top of the target range after the December meeting, rounded to the nearest quarter point; it is 4.00% at present. Official Fed announcements decide. The page lists its close as 04:59 UK time on 1 January 2027, and if no December decision were out by then, the top of the range in force at that moment would count. The page showed 21.5p for 4.0%, 64.7p for 4.25% and 12p for 4.5% or higher.
• What path will the Fed take on rates by 9 Dec? scores September, October and December together, each as a hike, a pause or a cut, judged on the top of the range before and after each meeting. September is already a hike, so the four named answers differ in October and December, and a fifth answer, Other, covers any other path, including one with a cut. FOMC statements and the Fed's rate page decide, and the page lists its close as 23:59 UK time on 9 December. Its page lists a price for each answer.

The calendar from here to 9 December

• Wednesday 14 October: US consumer price index (CPI) for September at 13:30 UK time (BST), per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calendar, and the Fed's Beige Book economic summary at 19:00 UK time (BST). Neither settles a Fed prediction (see our guide to the US CPI report).
• Wednesday 28 October: the decision at 18:00 UK time (GMT) and the press conference at 18:30. The statement settles the lead prediction, and a rise would meet the Yes condition above and move the starting point for December.
• Thursday 29 October to Tuesday 10 November: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP and personal income and outlays on 29 October (12:30 UK time, GMT), then the BLS jobs report on 6 November and CPI on 10 November (13:30 UK time, GMT), all between the two meetings.
• Wednesday 18 November: the minutes of the October meeting at 19:00 UK time (GMT), per the Fed's November calendar page.
• Wednesday 9 December: the next decision at 19:00 UK time (GMT), per the Fed's December calendar page. It settles the lift, top rate and path predictions, and How many Fed officials will dissent on rates on 9 Dec?, which counts December dissents from the statement in the same way and lists its close as 23:59 UK time on 9 December. At 07:54 UK time that page showed 47.5p for none, 26.5p for one, 14.7p for two, 9.5p for three and 2.5p for four or more.

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Frequently asked questions

What time is the Fed decision on 28 October 2026 in UK time?

18:00 UK time (GMT), which is 2:00pm in New York, with the press conference at 18:30.

What is the Fed interest rate now?

The federal funds rate target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, in effect since 17 September 2026 (the Fed's policy rate table).

Will the Fed raise interest rates on 28 October 2026?

Only the committee knows until the statement is out. The September minutes say most participants thought another increase would likely be appropriate by the end of the year, without naming a meeting. At 07:54 UK time on 10 October 2026, the versus prediction on a rise in the top of the range between 17 September and 9 December showed 77.5p for Yes.

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