US CPI Inflation Report, 14 October 2026: UK Time and Predictions

The US consumer price index (CPI) report for September 2026 is due from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 8:30am in New York, which is 13:30 UK time. At 08:08 UK time on 8 October 2026 the highest-priced answers on versus were 0.5% for the monthly headline change (38p, a 38% chance), 2.4% for the annual core rate (38p) and 0.2% for the monthly core change (41.5p).

This is a US data release, and this guide is for readers in Great Britain who follow it: times are UK times unless marked as New York time. Every BLS, Federal Reserve, GOV.UK, NIST and Gambling Commission fact below was checked on its official page on 8 October 2026, and nothing here is a forecast or advice.

One report, four numbers

BLS describes the CPI as a measure of the average change over time in the prices urban consumers pay for a market basket of goods and services (CPI home page). Each monthly report leads with two versions of the index: all items, the headline, and all items less food and energy, often called core. BLS's summary gives each as a one-month change that is seasonally adjusted, which strips out swings that repeat every year such as weather and holidays, and a 12-month change that is not.

The last report, Consumer Price Index, August 2026, was published on 11 September 2026 and gave all four:

• Headline, one month: up 0.4% in August, after 0.1% in July.
• Headline, 12 months: up 3.4%.
• Core, one month: up 0.3%, after 0.2% in July.
• Core, 12 months: up 2.4%, after 2.5% for the 12 months to July.

BLS said gasoline (petrol), which core excludes, accounted for over one third of the August headline rise. In its table for February to August, the headline monthly change ran from minus 0.4% to 0.9%, and core from 0.0% to 0.4%.

Which number each prediction uses

Each prediction settles on one of those four. All three read the one-decimal figure BLS prints for September in its 14 October report, and exactly one answer wins. Prices below were read at 08:08 UK time on 8 October 2026. If BLS is late, they stay open until its next scheduled CPI release on the BLS calendar; if September is still unpublished then, the latest earlier month with published data decides.

• What will US monthly inflation come in at? settles on the headline one-month change, seasonally adjusted, and a later revision does not alter it. It has nine answers, from 0.0% or less to 0.8% or more. The prices were 0.5% at 38p, 0.6% at 33.5p, 0.7% at 16p and 0.4% at 10p; the other five were 2.5p or less each.
• Where will annual US core CPI land? settles on the core 12-month rate, before seasonal adjustment; headline figures, estimates and revisions are ignored. It has ten answers, from 2.0% or less to 2.9% or more. The prices were 2.4% at 38p, 2.5% at 37.5p, 2.3% at 13.5p and 2.6% at 11p; the other six were 1.7p or less each.
• Where will monthly US core CPI land? settles on the core one-month change, seasonally adjusted, not the headline. It has seven answers, from 0.0% or less to 0.6% or more. The prices were 0.2% at 41.5p, 0.3% at 32.5p and 0.1% at 18.5p; the other four were 5.9p or less each.

Prices can move quickly, and prices of separate answers need not add up to exactly 100p; see how to read market probabilities.

Reading an answer: a made-up example

Say a made-up report prints headline 0.9% for the month and 3.6% for the year, with core at 0.2% and 2.5%. On the monthly headline prediction, 0.9% lands on the 0.8% or more answer, which takes everything beyond it, so that answer settles at 100p and the other eight at 0p. The 2.5% answer on annual core and the 0.2% answer on monthly core would also settle at 100p, each with every other answer at 0p. The headline 3.6% settles none of the three.

Only the printed figure counts. BLS prints each change to one decimal place, and its factsheet on calculating percent changes works its examples through to a one-decimal result. The predictions use that figure as printed.

The dates after the report

• Wednesday 14 October, 13:30: the September report. All three predictions settle on it.
• Thursday 15 October, 13:30: the BLS producer price index (PPI) for September (PPI schedule). It measures what domestic producers receive for their output, a separate series that cannot change the CPI predictions. A separate prediction, What will US producer price inflation be?, settles on its 12-month change in final demand prices, before seasonal adjustment. BLS's release of 10 September put that at 5.4% for August.
• Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October: the Federal Reserve's policy meeting (meeting calendar). The calendar gives no time for the October statement. The last one, on 16 September, came out at 2:00pm New York time, and a statement at that time on 28 October would be 18:00 UK time, because UK clocks go back on 25 October (GOV.UK) and New York's on 1 November (NIST). The three predictions settle on the BLS figure, not on anything the Fed does, so the meeting cannot change how they settle.
• Tuesday 10 November, 13:30: the October report, the next scheduled CPI release on today's BLS calendar and the date the rules fall back on if the September report is late.

Before you trade

You can lose the whole amount you put into a position: an answer that does not match the printed figure settles at 0p. A 2% transaction fee is added on top of the stake and shown before you confirm, you can sell while a market is open, and your loss can never exceed what you put in. versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission (account 101143, see its public register). Deposit limits, loss limits and other tools are in the app: see Safer Play. For the UK equivalent of this report, see our guide to UK CPI inflation.

Frequently asked questions

When is the next US CPI report, and what time is that in the UK?

Wednesday 14 October 2026, when BLS publishes the September figures at 8:30am Eastern Time. That is 13:30 UK time, as New York and the UK are both on summer time that day.

What is core CPI?

It is the CPI for all items less food and energy. BLS says on its questions and answers page that some users follow it because food and energy prices are relatively volatile and they want the underlying rate.

Can the September figure be revised afterwards?

BLS says the CPI for urban consumers (CPI-U) is final when released, with one routine exception: seasonally adjusted figures can be revised for up to five years as seasonal factors are updated each year. The predictions use the figure in the report, so revisions do not change them.

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