US GDP Grew 3.4% in Q3 2026 and September Core PCE Was 3.1%

US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in the July to September quarter, the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) reported on Thursday 29 October 2026, and its September figures put the PCE price index 3.6% above its level a year earlier, or 3.1% with food and energy left out. Eight of the nine versus predictions linked below are now settled; the ninth, on US growth for 2026 as a whole, is still open, and at 06:12 UK time on 30 October 2026 its page showed 50.1p for 2.0% to 2.5% and 51.8p for the top range, Above 2.5%.

This guide is for readers in Great Britain and is not a forecast or advice.

What the BEA printed at 12:30 UK time

Both reports came out at 8:30 a.m. EDT, 12:30 UK time (GMT), as UK clocks went back on 25 October (GOV.UK) and US clocks change only on 1 November (NIST).

The advance estimate for the third quarter leads with this: “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026”. Second-quarter growth was 2.2%, and at a plain quarterly rate the third-quarter rise was 0.8%. The BEA traced the gain to investment, consumer spending and government spending, partly offset by lower exports, while imports, which count as a subtraction, rose.

The Personal Income and Outlays report for September put the inflation numbers like this:

“From the preceding month, the PCE price index for September increased 0.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.”

“From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for September increased 3.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.1 percent from one year ago.”

Two core figures, two time spans. The GDP release has price figures of its own: PCE prices rose 2.1% in the third quarter (5.0% in the second) and core PCE 2.5% (3.3%), comparing July to September with April to June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The 3.1% in the monthly report compares September 2026 with September 2025, so the two core figures measure different spans.

GDP, PCE and CPI: what each measures

Real GDP is the value of the final goods and services the US produces, adjusted for inflation (BEA). Quarterly growth is quoted at an annual rate, the quarter's pace compounded over four quarters (BEA FAQ), and each quarter is estimated three times: the advance estimate about a month after it ends, then a second and a third with more source data.

The PCE price index tracks what people living in the US pay for goods and services (BEA). The BEA calls it similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index, or CPI, but built differently (BEA on prices): a 2007 BEA reconciliation paper names different formulas, weights from business rather than household surveys, and items only one index covers. Core PCE leaves out food and energy, whose prices swing more often and more sharply.

Why the Fed watches it. The Fed's rate-setting committee judges that 2% inflation over the longer run, measured by the annual change in the PCE price index, fits its mandate best (Fed FAQ), and it looks at core measures to help identify the trend (Fed FAQ on inflation).

The nine versus predictions against the figures

Eight predictions were tied to the two releases. Their pages listed an end date of 12:29 UK time on 29 October, a minute before publication, and all eight now show as settled.

What will US annualised quarterly GDP growth be? looked only at the headline annual rate in the advance estimate, not at the 0.8% quarterly change. It offered seven answers: Below 0.5%, five bands half a point wide from 0.5% up to 3.0%, and 3.0% or more, with a figure on a boundary going to the higher band. The BEA's figure was 3.4%.

Seven Yes or No predictions each covered one outcome for September's core rate: 2.7% or less, 2.8%, 2.9%, 3.0%, 3.1%, 3.2% and 3.3% or more. All seven read the 12-month change in core PCE, to one decimal place as the September report prints it; neither the all-items 3.6% nor the 2.5% quarterly core rate in the GDP release counted. The BEA's figure was 3.1%.

The ninth, What will US annual GDP growth be?, is still open. It asks how fast real GDP grew in 2026 as a whole against 2025, using the full-year rate in the BEA's first fourth-quarter estimate, due on 28 January 2027; later revisions do not count, and a rate landing right on a dividing line counts for the range above. Its page lists an end date of 00:00 UK time (GMT) on Friday 29 January 2027, and at 06:12 UK time on 30 October 2026 it showed:

• Below 0.5%: 2.5p
• 0.5% to 1.0%: 2.1p
• 1.0% to 1.5%: 2p
• 1.5% to 2.0%: 2.9p
• 2.0% to 2.5%: 50.1p
• Above 2.5%, which under its rules also takes a rate of exactly 2.5%: 51.8p

A price is the market's estimate of a chance, so 50.1p for 2.0% to 2.5% reads as a 50.1% chance that the full-year figure lands in that range. Prices of separate answers need not add up to 100p (how to read market probabilities).

Dates ahead, in UK time (GMT)

• Tuesday 10 November, 13:30: October CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 8:30 a.m. Eastern time (BLS schedule). CPI is built differently from PCE, but it shows October consumer prices two weeks before the BEA does (our October CPI guide).
• Wednesday 25 November, 13:30: the BEA's second estimate of third-quarter GDP and October Personal Income and Outlays, both at 8:30 a.m. EST (BEA schedule). The second estimate adds source data that were not ready a month earlier, so the 3.4% may be revised; the October report shows whether the 3.6% and 3.1% annual PCE rates moved.
• Wednesday 9 December, 19:00: the Fed's decision at the end of its 8 to 9 December meeting, listed for 2:00 p.m. Eastern time, with a press conference at 19:30 (Fed calendar) and a Summary of Economic Projections (FOMC calendar). It is the first scheduled decision since these figures, and September's 3.6% PCE rate is above the 2% goal (our October Fed guide).
• Wednesday 23 December, 13:30: the third estimate of third-quarter GDP, with Personal Income and Outlays for November (BEA schedule).
• Thursday 28 January 2027, 13:30: the BEA's advance estimate covering the fourth quarter and all of 2026 (BEA 2027 schedule); its full-year rate decides the open 2026 growth prediction.

Before you trade

You can lose the whole amount you put into a position: on the open 2026 prediction, an answer whose range misses the BEA's January figure settles at 0p. A 2% transaction fee is added on top of your stake and shown before you confirm. While a prediction is open you can sell at the current price, and a loss can never exceed what you put in. versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143 (see its public register). Deposit and loss limits, time outs and self exclusion are in Safer Play.

Frequently asked questions

How much did the US economy grow in the third quarter of 2026?

Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.4%, after 2.2% in the second quarter, according to the BEA's advance estimate of 29 October 2026.

What was core PCE inflation in September 2026?

Core PCE, which leaves out food and energy, was 3.1% higher than a year earlier and up 0.3% on the month, the BEA said on 29 October 2026. All-items PCE was up 3.6% on the year and 0.5% on the month.

When are the next US GDP and PCE figures in UK time?

At 13:30 UK time (GMT) on Wednesday 25 November 2026, which is 8:30 a.m. EST, with the BEA's second estimate of third-quarter GDP and the October PCE figures.

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