US House Races 2026: What Eight District Predictions Ask

All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are on the ballot on Tuesday 3 November 2026, and versus has single-district predictions, most asking which party takes the seat or who wins and by how much. At 07:03 UK time on 30 October 2026, the Montana 1st district prediction showed 58.6p for the Democratic Party, the market's estimate of a 58.6% chance that the party takes that seat.

This guide, for readers in Great Britain, covers eight districts: Oregon's 5th, Montana's 1st, Virginia's 5th and 10th, Georgia's 11th, Ohio's 15th, Texas's 7th and Maine's 2nd. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) names 3 November as the federal general election date, members serve two-year terms (house.gov), and on 30 October the Clerk of the House showed 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 1 independent and 2 vacant seats. Control of the chamber is in our midterms guide; Senate races and ballot measures have their own.

How to read a district prediction

A party prediction has one answer for each major party. Some answers carry a candidate's name, such as "Suhas Subramanyam (D)", but stand for the party, replacement nominees included. It settles once reliable news organisations agree on the winner, with the FEC's official results deciding any doubt. A winner elected without either party's label goes to whichever party they say they will caucus with, and there is no cut-off date.

A margin ladder sorts the result into bands by the winner's lead over the runner-up, in percentage points of valid votes. Montana's 1st runs from "Republican 12%+" through bands of 3 points to "Democrat 12%+"; others give one party a single answer for a win by any margin, such as "Republican Wins" in Oregon's 5th. A margin on a dividing line goes to the higher band, and if a third candidate comes first, every listed answer settles No. Ladders use the state's official count, wait for any recount and settle all listed answers No if nothing is definitive by 04:59 BST on 1 July 2027 (what market resolution means).

Most of these predictions stop trading at 04:59 GMT on Wednesday 4 November, 11:59 pm Eastern on polling day, and a close stops trading, not the question (when markets close). Prices are the market's estimates of a chance, and versus does not say who will win (reading market probabilities).

The eight districts, in the order polls close

Readings were taken at 07:03 UK time on 30 October 2026, and seat holders come from the Clerk's member list.

• Virginia's 10th (VA-10): held by Suhas Subramanyam (Democratic), on the Department of Elections' federal candidate list (updated 6 October) with Dave T. Beckwith (Republican) and Ahsen Mujeeb Malik (Independent). The party prediction showed 99.7p for the Democratic answer; a margin ladder covers Democratic leads in 5-point bands and any Republican win.
• Virginia's 5th (VA-05): held by John J. McGuire III (Republican), listed with Tom S. P. Perriello (Democratic) and Cooke C. Harvey (Independent). The party prediction showed 44.4p for the Democratic answer. Its margin ladder stops trading early, at 12:00 GMT on 3 November, 7 am in Virginia.
• Georgia's 11th (GA-11): held by Barry Loudermilk (Republican), who did not run in the Republican primary. The Secretary of State's results show Chris Harden won the Democratic primary on 19 May, and John Cowan, who had 42.60% that day, won the Republican run-off on 16 June. Georgia requires a majority, with a run-off between the top two otherwise (election code section 21-2-501), and the Secretary of State's 2026 calendar sets any general election run-off for 1 December. The first-round margin prediction ignores that run-off: eight Republican bands, seven of 5 points and one for 35 points or more, plus "Democrat Wins". The prediction on Harden winning showed 5.3p for Yes.
• Ohio's 15th (OH-15): held by Mike Carey (Republican). Franklin County's Board of Elections, covering part of the district, lists Carey, Don Leonard (Democratic), Brennan Barrington (Libertarian) and Gary Josephson, with no party shown. The party prediction showed 38.8p for the Democratic answer; there is also a margin ladder.
• Maine's 2nd (ME-02): held by Jared F. Golden (Democratic), who is absent from the Secretary of State's final candidate list: Matthew G. Dunlap (Democratic) and Paul R. LePage (Republican), plus a declared write-in, Gregory A. Ward. Maine counts federal races by ranked choice, adding rounds only when more than two candidates run and nobody has a majority. The margin ladder uses only the first count; the party prediction follows the final round and showed 47.7p for Dunlap's answer.
• Texas's 7th (TX-07): held by Lizzie Fletcher (Democratic). The Secretary of State's ballot certification of 28 August lists Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (Democratic), Alexander Hale (Republican) and Espoir Ngabo (Green). The party prediction showed 97.6p for the Democratic Party, and a margin ladder has Democratic bands up to 50 points or more.
• Montana's 1st (MT-01): held by Ryan K. Zinke (Republican), who is absent from the Secretary of State's candidate filing list for the 3 November general election: Aaron Flint (Republican), Sam Forstag (Democratic) and Nick Sheedy (Libertarian). The party prediction is quoted above, and its margin ladder is the 3-point example.
• Oregon's 5th (OR-05): held by Janelle S. Bynum (Democratic). The Secretary of State's voters' pamphlet lists her, Patti Adair (Republican and Libertarian) and Andrea Townsend (Pacific Green). There is no party prediction, only a margin ladder of Democratic bands in 5-point steps plus "Republican Wins"; the page showed 1.7p for that answer.

Election night in UK time

US clocks go back on Sunday 1 November (NIST), so on polling day Eastern time is five hours behind GMT, Central six, Mountain seven and Pacific eight. Polls close between 00:00 and 04:00 GMT on Wednesday 4 November:

• 00:00: Virginia, at 7 pm (Department of Elections), and Georgia, at 7 pm (Secretary of State).
• 00:30: Ohio, at 7:30 pm (Franklin County).
• 01:00: Maine, at 8 pm (voter guide), and Texas, at 7 pm Central time in the 7th district (VoteTexas).
• 03:00: Montana, at 8 pm Mountain time (voter calendar).
• 04:00: Oregon, which votes by post, with ballots due in drop boxes by 8 pm Pacific time (Secretary of State).

Results appear on each state's own site, unofficial at first: Oregon's and Montana's after 8 pm local time, Virginia's on the night, and Georgia's, Texas's and Maine's; in Ohio, county boards such as Franklin County's post their own.

Counting can run on for days. Postal ballots postmarked by polling day still count in Oregon if they arrive by 10 November, in Virginia by noon on Friday 6 November, 17:00 GMT (Department of Elections), and in Texas by 5 pm on 4 November, 23:00 GMT (VoteTexas); Ohio and Maine need them by the close of polls, Montana by polling day. Oregon certifies its results on 10 December, the official count its ladder waits for.

Before you trade

You can lose the whole amount you put into a position: an answer that does not come true settles at 0p. A 2% transaction fee is added on top of the stake and shown before you confirm, you can sell at the current price while a prediction is open, and your loss can never exceed what you put in. versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143 (public register), and Safer Play has deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time out and self exclusion, alongside GAMSTOP.

Frequently asked questions

What time do polls close in Oregon in UK time?

Oregon votes by post, so ballots must reach a drop box by 8 pm Pacific time on Tuesday 3 November, which is 04:00 GMT on Wednesday 4 November, the latest closing of the eight districts here.

How does a margin prediction settle?

On the state's official count, which can take weeks: the band holding the winner's lead settles Yes, a margin on a dividing line counts in the higher band, and every other answer settles No.

Why does the Georgia 11th prediction cover only the first round?

Georgia needs a majority and otherwise holds a run-off, which the Secretary of State has set for 1 December 2026. The versus margin prediction uses only the 3 November count.

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