US Midterms 2026: What the House and Senate Predictions Say

At 08:09 UK time on 8 October 2026, versus priced the Democratic Party at 90.5p, a 90.5% chance, to take control of the US House of Representatives after the elections of Tuesday 3 November 2026, and the Republican Party at 9.5p. For the Senate it priced the Democratic Party at 63.5p and the Republican Party at 35.5p, so the Democratic Party answer carried the higher price in both.

This guide is for readers in Great Britain who follow another country's election. A price is the market's estimate of a chance, not a promise: an answer that comes true settles at 100p and any other at 0p.

The prices side by side

Prices below were read at 08:09 UK time on 8 October 2026. Prices of separate answers need not add up to 100p (how to read market probabilities).

• House: Who takes the US House at the midterms? has the Democratic Party at 90.5p and the Republican Party at 9.5p.
• House, yes or no: Will the GOP keep its House majority? has Yes at 9.5p and No at 90.5p.
• Senate: Which party controls the US Senate after the midterms? has the Democratic Party at 63.5p and the Republican Party at 35.5p.
• Both chambers: Which party runs Washington after the midterms? has Democrats Sweep at 63.5p, a Republican Senate with a Democratic House at 27.5p, Republicans Sweep at 8.5p, a Democratic Senate with a Republican House at 0.9p and Other at 0.2p.

What the official US pages say is on the ballot

These facts come from official pages checked on 8 October 2026.

• The date. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) names Tuesday 3 November 2026 as the next regularly scheduled federal general election date.
• The House. All 435 seats are up, because the Constitution has members chosen every second year. The House Radio-Television Gallery (updated 2 September 2026) and the House Clerk's member data (published 1 October 2026) both show 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 1 independent and 2 vacancies. A majority of 435 is 218.
• The Senate. The senate.gov list of senators whose terms end on 3 January 2027 has 33 names, and the FEC's 2026 primary calendar marks Senate elections in 35 states, Ohio and Florida being the two extra. The senator list on senate.gov (updated 23 September 2026) shows 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 independents, who sit with the Democrats according to the Senate Press Gallery. A majority is 51. At 50 to 50 the Vice President, elected on the Republican ticket in 2024, casts the deciding vote.

Redistricting matters too: on 29 April 2026 the US Supreme Court held Louisiana's House map an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, and the FEC now lists that state's House general election for 3 November, with a runoff on 12 December if no candidate wins more than half the vote.

How the four predictions settle

Every prediction names its settling source before you trade (what market resolution means).

• House prediction. The party with a majority of the 435 seats after 3 November. If that is unclear, it waits for the new House to elect a Speaker and follows the Speaker's party. News coverage is the source, with official certifications as the fallback.
• House yes or no. Yes if the Republican Party holds a majority of the House after reliable reports agree on who controls it; otherwise No.
• Senate prediction. The party with a majority of the 100 seats or, at 50 to 50, the party of the Vice President. Regular and special elections count, and so do runoffs held after November. An independent counts for the party they caucus with; if that is unclear, it waits for their announcement or until 11:59pm Eastern on 4 January 2027 (04:59 UK time on 5 January), whichever is first, and a senator who has announced nothing by then counts for no party.
• Both chambers. The answer that matches the party in control of each chamber. It settles once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all conclusively called control of both chambers; if they do not agree, the official election certifications decide.

A Democratic House settles the Democratic Party answer in the House prediction and No in the House yes or no at 100p, and a Republican House settles the Republican Party answer and Yes instead. The Senate prediction works the same way, and Democrats Sweep needs both chambers. While the current Vice President is in office, a 50 to 50 Senate goes to the Republican Party. Rare cases, such as a Speaker who caucuses with no listed party, are covered by fallback rules on each prediction's page.

The calendar, in UK time

UK clocks go back on Sunday 25 October (gov.uk) and US clocks on Sunday 1 November (NIST, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology), so on 3 November Washington is five hours behind the UK.

• Tuesday 3 November, Election Day: according to their market pages, the House and both chambers predictions close at 00:00, which is 7pm on Monday in Washington, and the House yes or no at 23:59, which is 6:59pm there. The Senate prediction closes at 04:59 on Wednesday 4 November, 11:59pm in Washington. A close ends trading, not the question (when markets close).
• From 4 November: counting goes on. The US Election Assistance Commission says election-night results are not final and that state and local officials are the authorities on certification dates.
• 1 and 12 December: the FEC calendar lists a general election runoff in Georgia on 1 December, where a Senate seat is on the ballot, and one in Louisiana on 12 December, for House seats. A Georgia Senate runoff would count towards the Senate prediction; Louisiana's is for the House.
• Sunday 3 January 2027: the 20th Amendment starts the new members' terms at noon, 17:00 UK time, and has Congress meet that day unless it sets another by law. The House prediction can wait until the Speaker vote.

Before you trade

You can lose the whole amount you put into a position: an answer that does not come true settles at 0p, even one priced at 90.5p. A 2% transaction fee is added on top of the stake and shown before you confirm, you can sell while a market is open, and your loss can never exceed what you put in. versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission (account 101143, see its public register). Safer Play has deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time out and self exclusion, alongside GAMSTOP, and how it works follows one position from opening to settlement.

Frequently asked questions

When are the 2026 US midterm elections?

On Tuesday 3 November 2026, according to the Federal Election Commission. Washington is five hours behind the UK that day.

How many seats does a party need to control Congress?

218 of 435 in the House and 51 of 100 in the Senate. At 50 to 50 the Vice President's tie-breaking vote decides.

Will the result be known on 4 November?

Not always. Election-night results are not final, the US Election Assistance Commission says, and the FEC lists runoffs for 1 December in Georgia and, for House seats, 12 December in Louisiana.

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