Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrats 8-10% at a 28% chance, ahead of Democrats 10-12% at 23% and Democrats 6-8% at 18%.
This market resolves according to the popular-vote margin between the Democratic and Republican parties in the 2026 U.S. House elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” means the absolute difference between: - the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic House candidates, and - the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican House candidates. Each party’s percentage is calculated by dividing its total valid vote for U.S. House candidates by the total valid votes cast for all U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes for candidates for U.S. Representative from the 50 states count. Votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner do not count. If the final reported value lands exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves using the vote totals published by the U.S. Clerk of the House. Any recounts reflected in the Clerk’s published totals will count. If the 2026 House midterms do not take place by July 1, 2027, 05:59 CEST, the market resolves to “Other.” The primary resolution source is the 2026 midterm election results published by the U.S. Clerk of the House. If the elections occur but the Clerk has still not published the results by July 1, 2027, 05:59 CEST, another credible resolution source may be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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