Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Below 190 at a 28% chance, ahead of 190-194 at 14% and 195-199 at 14%.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. This market resolves according to the number of seats the Republican Party holds in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterms. Resolution is based on the results of all U.S. House elections, including special elections, scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the outcome, the market stays open until that runoff is conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House races are conclusively called by the resolution sources. Resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three have conclusively called all U.S. House elections. If the three sources do not reach consensus on the relevant races, resolution is based on official certification.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @ElectionTime_
