Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrats Sweep at a 62% chance, ahead of R Senate, D House at 30% and Republicans Sweep at 9%.
This market resolves according to which parties control the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate following the 2026 midterm elections. House control: A party controls the House if it wins more than half of all voting seats. Senate control: A party controls the Senate if it holds more than half of all voting seats. If each party holds exactly half, control is assigned to the party of the Vice President. Party affiliation: A candidate’s party is determined by the affiliation shown on the ballot or otherwise clearly identifiable when the 2026 midterm results are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is assigned to whichever of those parties they most recently stated an intention to caucus with as of the time the elections are conclusively called. Ambiguous House control: If the controlling party cannot be determined under these rules, House control is assigned according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker elected after the 2026 midterms. Ambiguous Senate control: If Senate control remains unclear, it is assigned according to the party affiliation of the first Senate Majority Leader selected after the 2026 midterms. Resolution source: The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves after all three have conclusively called control of both chambers. If they do not reach consensus on the relevant races, the outcome is determined from the official election certifications.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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