Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 3.4% to 3.6% at a 49% chance, ahead of 3.7% to 3.9% at 22% and 3.1% to 3.3% at 15%.
This prediction is decided by the UK annual inflation rate for September 2026 under the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), meaning the percentage change in CPI over the 12 months to September 2026, as published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in its monthly Consumer Prices Index, UK release. That release is scheduled for 21 October 2026 at 7:00 AM UK time (BST); publication timing follows the ONS release calendar. The rate is used exactly as the ONS publishes it, to one decimal place. Only the CPI rate counts; CPIH (the index that adds owner occupiers' housing costs) and every other inflation measure do not. YES goes to the bracket that contains the published rate, with both end values included in each bracket (for example, 3.1% falls in 3.1% to 3.3%); the lowest bracket covers every rate of 2.7% or less and the highest covers every rate of 4.0% or more. Every other bracket is NO. If the ONS does not publish the September figure on the scheduled date, the outcome waits until the next monthly CPI report's scheduled publication time; if the September figure is still not out by then, the most recent earlier month with a published ONS annual CPI rate is used instead. Only ONS figures are used, including for that fallback; no outside estimate replaces them.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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