Bank of England Rate Decision 5 November 2026: What to Watch

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee announces its next Bank Rate decision at 12 noon on Thursday 5 November 2026, and nobody outside the committee can say yet what it will be. As of 7 October 2026 Bank Rate is 3.75%, where it has stood since 18 December 2025, and at its last decision, on 17 September, the committee voted 6 to 3 to hold it, with three members voting for a rise to 4%. On versus, a 25 bps increase to 4% was priced at 91.5p, a 91.5% chance, at 07:26 UK time on 7 October 2026.

This guide sets out what the Bank and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have published, the dates that matter before the announcement, and how a versus prediction on the decision settles. Every Bank and ONS fact was checked on their own pages on 7 October 2026. It is not a forecast and not advice.

What the versus prediction showed on 7 October 2026

versus lists a prediction called What will the Bank of England do with rates? Its five answers are 50+ bps decrease, 25 bps decrease, no change, 25 bps increase and 50+ bps increase. A basis point (bps) is one hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 bps is a quarter of a point: from 3.75%, a 25 bps increase means 4% and a 25 bps decrease means 3.5%.

Each answer has a price between 0p and 100p, the market's estimate of its chance: 33p would mean a 33% chance. At 07:26 UK time on 7 October 2026 the market priced a 25 bps increase at 91.5p, a 91.5% chance, and no change at 6.5p. A 50+ bps increase stood at 0.6p, and a 25 bps decrease and a 50+ bps decrease at 0.1p each. Three of the nine members already voted for a rise in September, as described below, but a price is the market's estimate at that moment, not a promise, and it can change with every release.

How the prediction settles

It settles on how much Bank Rate changes because of the November meeting, compared with its level just before. The source is the Bank's own announcement, the Monetary Policy Summary due at 12 noon on 5 November 2026, and the prediction can settle as soon as it is published. The matching answer settles at 100p and the other four at 0p (what market resolution means explains the idea). An odd-sized move is rounded to the nearest 25 bps, with anything smaller than 25 bps counting as 25. If the meeting is postponed but held before the next scheduled one, that meeting decides it; if it is cancelled or pushed back further, the prediction settles as no change. Emergency changes outside the November meeting, and the 17 December meeting, do not count.

What the Bank has said so far

The Bank's Bank Rate page shows 3.75%, and its history table shows the last change was a cut from 4% on 18 December 2025. The committee has held the rate at all six 2026 meetings, but the votes have shifted: 5 to 4 in February (four wanted a cut), unanimous in March, then 8 to 1 in April, 7 to 2 in June, and 6 to 3 in both July and September. From April on, every dissenter wanted a rise.

The Summary and minutes of 17 September 2026 say UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August and is likely to rise further, that risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and that the committee stands ready to act as needed to keep inflation on course for the 2% target. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted for a rise to 4%; the other six, including the Governor, Andrew Bailey, voted to hold. Those for a rise pointed to resilient activity, which suggests slack in the economy may have peaked, and to the risk of second-round effects, where dearer energy feeds into pay and prices. Those for a hold pointed to a soft labour market, tight financial conditions and limited evidence of such effects so far.

On 17 September the Governor said, on the Bank Rate page, that the longer energy price volatility lasts, the more likely it is that the Bank will need to raise Bank Rate. Clare Lombardelli, who voted to hold, said on 24 September that policy is increasingly likely to need to tighten if high energy prices persist, unless there is clear evidence of falling inflation or weaker activity, but that the Bank cannot offer firm guidance. Alan Taylor, who also voted to hold, said on 29 September that no single indicator settles the question, and named the signposts he watches: energy prices, the expectations of households and firms, pay and price-setting, and demand and slack. In the September minutes he also said that easing should come into sight if tensions abated and inflation pressure eased.

Where inflation stands

ONS's Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026, published on 16 September, put CPI at 3.1% for the 12 months to August, up from 2.9% in July, with transport, particularly motor fuels, making the largest upward contribution. On energy prices as at 14 September, the Bank's minutes expected CPI to reach around 3¾% in the last three months of 2026 and slightly above 4% in early 2027.

Dates before the decision, and what the committee says it watches

These describe what the committee has said it looks at. They are not forecasts of how it will vote.

• 15 October, 7:00am: ONS monthly GDP for August (release page). In September the committee said activity was slightly stronger than expected, and ONS had July GDP up 0.4%. How much slack is left is one point the two camps weighed differently.
• 20 October, 7:00am: ONS labour market statistics (release page). The committee describes a soft labour market with some signs of steadying. ONS's 15 September figures had unemployment at 4.9% for May to July and regular pay growth at 3.5%. Pay is one of its indicators for second-round effects.
• 21 October, 7:00am: ONS consumer price inflation for September (release page). The committee has said it expects CPI to rise further and that underlying inflation was still above rates consistent with the target. A separate prediction, What will the UK's annual inflation rate be?, settles on this figure, and the guide to UK CPI inflation in 2026 explains how such predictions settle.
• Through October: energy prices. There is no release date, but the minutes call the conflict in the Middle East and its effect on energy prices the dominant source of uncertainty.
• 4 and 5 November: the meeting and the decision. The meeting ends on 4 November. At 12 noon on 5 November the Bank publishes the decision, each member's vote and the minutes, and its calendar lists the November Monetary Policy Report for the same day (MPC dates, release page). The Summary settles the prediction.

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Frequently asked questions

When does the Bank of England announce its next interest rate decision?

At 12 noon on Thursday 5 November 2026, according to the Bank's page for that release. The last scheduled decision of 2026 is on 17 December.

What is Bank Rate now, and when did it last change?

3.75%, according to the Bank's page on 7 October 2026. The last change was a cut from 4% on 18 December 2025.

How does Bank Rate affect mortgages and savings?

The Bank says it influences the rates that banks and building societies charge on loans and pay on savings, which usually follow it up or down. Each lender sets its own rates, so check your own terms.

What counts as a 25 bps increase on the versus prediction?

A rise in Bank Rate of 25 bps, such as 3.75% to 4%, as a result of the November meeting. If the Bank holds the rate, the no change answer settles at 100p and the other four at 0p.

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