New Zealand Election 2026: Date, Polls and Who Is Expected to Win

New Zealand votes on Saturday 7 November 2026, and the polls disagree on which big party is ahead: four published on 6 and 8 October put National and Labour 0.3 to 7.5 points apart, three with National in front and one with Labour. At 07:55 UK time on 10 October 2026 the versus prediction on which party wins the most seats showed 54.5p for Labour Party and 46.5p for National Party.

This guide is for readers in Great Britain and is not advice.

How the voting system works

New Zealand uses mixed member proportional voting (MMP). Each voter casts a party vote and an electorate vote for a local candidate. The House has 120 seats, and 2026 has 71 electorates, 64 general and 7 Māori, for voters on the Māori roll (Electoral Commission guide, electorates). A party gets seats only with 5% of the party vote or one electorate, and seats then follow vote share, so parties usually form a coalition or back each other through a confidence and supply deal (what MMP is).

The biggest party does not always govern: in 2017 National won the most seats, 56, but Labour, on 46, formed the government with New Zealand First and the Greens' support (2017 result, Speech from the Throne). A party that wins more electorates than its vote share earns keeps them and the House grows, an overhang: the 2023 official result had 122 seats (2023 result).

The calendar, in UK time

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced the date on 21 January 2026 (Beehive release); the Electoral Commission's key dates page has the rest.

• Sunday 25 October: enrolment closes at midnight New Zealand time, and advance voting starts the next day.
• Friday 6 November, 20:00 UK time (GMT): voting places open at 9am on Saturday in New Zealand, 13 hours ahead of UTC on daylight time (govt.nz), while UK clocks go back to GMT on 25 October (gov.uk).
• Saturday 7 November, 06:00 UK time (GMT): voting places close at 7pm in New Zealand and preliminary results start to appear, without special votes.
• Friday 27 November: official results are declared, and the writ is due back by 3 December.

Where the polls stand

Four polls were published on 6 and 8 October (New Zealand dates). Each is a snapshot with a margin of error of roughly 3 points. Party vote in percent:

• 1News Verian, 6 October (report, fieldwork 1 to 5 October): National 29, Labour 28, Greens 16, New Zealand First 10, ACT 9, Opportunity 7, Te Pāti Māori 1.
• RNZ Reid Research, 6 October (report, 24 September to 1 October): National 25.9, Labour 30.8, Greens 14.8, New Zealand First 10.6, ACT 9, Opportunity 5.5, Te Pāti Māori 2.
• Roy Morgan, 6 October (release, 31 August to 27 September): National 31, Labour 23.5, Greens 16, ACT 11, New Zealand First 10, Opportunity 6.5, Te Pāti Māori 2.
• Taxpayers' Union-Curia, 8 October (release, 1 to 5 October): National 28.5, Labour 28.2, Greens 13.3, New Zealand First 12, ACT 9.2, Opportunity 4.8, Te Pāti Māori 1.4.

The seat projections published with each poll for the current coalition of National, ACT and New Zealand First range from 56 (RNZ Reid Research) and 58 (1News Verian), short of a majority, to 62 (Roy Morgan) and 65 (Taxpayers' Union-Curia).

What the five predictions measure

All five list 00:00 UK time (GMT) on Saturday 7 November as their end date, 1pm in New Zealand and six hours before polls close. Trading is due to end then and the result settles later (when markets close), with a fallback if nothing is definite by early on 1 November 2027 (1 January 2028 for the prime minister and coalition ones). A price from 0p to 100p is the market's estimate of a chance, and prices need not add up to 100p. Readings are from 07:55 UK time on 10 October 2026.

• Most seats. Which party comes out on top in New Zealand? counts seats in the House, not the party vote, and a tie goes to the party with more party votes. Credible reporting decides, with the Commission's official count as the fallback. The page showed 54.5p for Labour Party and 46.5p for National Party. In 2023 the official result was 48 seats for National and 34 for Labour.
• Prime minister. Who will lead New Zealand after the vote? settles on the next person the Governor-General formally appoints, and a caretaker holder does not count. The page showed 55.5p for Christopher Luxon, the National leader and current prime minister, and 44.5p for Chris Hipkins, the Labour leader.
• Coalition. Which coalition will run New Zealand? settles on the first governing coalition. A party counts only if it holds a Cabinet post, so outside support under a confidence and supply deal does not. Only six parties are considered, and Opportunity is not one of them. The page showed 42.5p for National + ACT + NZF, the current coalition, 31.1p for Labour + Green and 17.5p for Labour + Green + Maori.
• Margin. How wide will the winning margin be in New Zealand? is the gap in points between the two parties with the most party votes, general and Māori electorates together. Electorate votes are ignored, and the Commission's official results are the source. Brackets step by five points, plus Another Party Wins. Four of eight answers showed 31p for National 0-5%, 26p for Labour 0-5%, 18.8p for National 5-10% and 11.5p for Labour 5-10%. In 2023 the gap was about 11 points in National's favour.
• Turnout. How high will New Zealand's election turnout be? is votes cast divided by enrolled voters, from the Commission's official results. For 2023 its official results table gives 78.20% (votes cast divided by electors on the master roll, the measure the prediction's rules name) and its separate turnout statistics page 77.51%, which fall in different brackets. The page showed 36.5p for 78-80% and 32p for 76-78%.

What would change the picture

• The 5% line. Opportunity has no MPs now and polls between 4.8% and 7%, so crossing 5% either way changes the seat maths for both blocs.
• Election night, from 06:00 UK time on 7 November. The first count leaves out special votes, about one in five valid party votes in 2023 (582,553 of 2,851,211), so seats, the margin and turnout can all move by 27 November.
• Coalition talks. The prime minister and coalition predictions wait for ministers to be appointed. In 2023, 44 days passed from polling day on 14 October to the 27 November appointment.

Before you trade

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Frequently asked questions

When is the New Zealand election?

Saturday 7 November 2026, as the Prime Minister announced on 21 January 2026. Voting places are open from 20:00 on Friday 6 November to 06:00 on Saturday 7 November UK time (GMT).

Who is expected to win the New Zealand election?

No one can say yet. Four polls published on 6 and 8 October put National and Labour 0.3 to 7.5 points apart, and no party is near half the seats, so coalition talks decide who governs.

When will the result be known?

Preliminary results start from 06:00 UK time on 7 November and official results are due on 27 November. A new government can take longer.

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