Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is National + ACT + NZF at a 43% chance, ahead of Labour + Green at 26% and Labour + Green + Maori at 18%.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on 7 November 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will be considered part of the ruling coalition only if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, whether through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, do not qualify. The parties considered for this market are ACT New Zealand (ACT), the Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Māori), the National Party (National), the Green Party (Green) and the New Zealand First Party (NZF). No other party will be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties in the coalition. Where the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties named in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to "Yes" unless another listed option covers the coalition more completely. An option will not resolve to "Yes" if any of the parties it names is absent from the coalition. By way of illustration, if the governing coalition consists of Labour, the Greens and ACT but no option lists those three together, the market will resolve to "Labour + Green" provided that option is listed and no other listed option matches the coalition more completely. Likewise, if the governing coalition consists of National, ACT and NZF, the option "National + ACT + NZF" will resolve to "Yes" while "National + ACT" will resolve to "No". Should the ruling coalition contain all of the parties named in more than one option, and those options name an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favour of the option whose parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If that too is tied, resolution will favour the option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If a single party forms a majority government on its own, the listed option for that party will be treated as the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all of the parties named in any listed option, this market will resolve to "Other". This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed, following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with those ministers appointed in non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition is not confirmed by 05:59 CET on 1 January 2028, this market will resolve to "Other". Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. Where there is ambiguity, it will be based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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