Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:18 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Labour Party at a 54% chance, ahead of National Party at 47% and Green Party at <1%.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on 7 November 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives at this election. If the results are not definitively known by 05:59 CET on 1 November 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Should two or more parties tie for the most seats, this market will resolve in favour of the party that received the greater number of valid party list votes. If that too is tied, it will resolve in favour of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. Resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party at this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. Where there is ambiguity, resolution will be based solely on the official results published by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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