Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is National 0-5% at a 32% chance, ahead of Labour 0-5% at 25% and National 5-10% at 18%.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 1, 2027, 04:59 CET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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