ECB Interest Rate Decision October 2026: Date, Time and Prediction

The European Central Bank (ECB) next sets its interest rates on Thursday 29 October 2026, with the decision normally due at 13:15 UK time. On versus at 08:08 UK time on 8 October 2026, no change to its deposit facility rate was priced at 93.5p, a 93.5% chance, and a 25 bps (0.25 percentage point) increase at 7.5p.

That rate is 2.50%, in force since 16 September 2026 after the ECB raised its three key rates by 25 bps on 10 September. This guide is for readers in Great Britain, and it is not a forecast or advice. Its official facts were checked at source on 8 October 2026.

Decision day in UK time

The ECB's calendar lists the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt on 28 and 29 October. The ECB's page on monetary policy decisions says they are published at 14:15 CET (Central European Time) on the day of the meeting. UK clocks go back on 25 October (gov.uk) and EU summer time ends the same day (Directive 2000/84/EC), so on 29 October that is 13:15 UK time.

Where the rate stands

The deposit facility rate is 2.50%, with effect from 16 September 2026, according to the ECB's key interest rates page. The ECB's own explainer calls it the interest banks receive when they deposit money with the central bank overnight, and the rate through which the Governing Council steers its policy stance.

The Council raised its three key rates by 25 bps on 11 June, left them unchanged on 23 July, and raised them by 25 bps again on 10 September. The 10 September release says the Council takes a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and is not pre-committing to a rate path, so it does not commit to a move in October.

The latest inflation figures

The ECB says price stability is best maintained by aiming for 2% inflation over the medium term. Eurostat's flash estimate of 2 October 2026 put euro area (eurozone) annual inflation at 3.8% for September, up from 3.2% in August, and inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco at 2.5%. The full September data follow on 16 October. A longer-dated prediction, Where will eurozone inflation end up?, settles on Eurostat's December 2026 figure.

What the prices say

A basis point (bps) is one hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 bps is 0.25 percentage points. From 2.50%, a 25 bps increase would mean 2.75%.

The prediction What will the ECB do with rates? has five answers: 50+ bps decrease, 25 bps decrease, no change, 25 bps increase and 50+ bps increase. Each has a price between 0p and 100p, the market's estimate of its chance. At 08:08 UK time on 8 October 2026 no change stood at 93.5p, a 25 bps increase at 7.5p and each of the other three at 1p or less. The five add up to a little over 100p, and prices of separate answers need not add up to exactly 100p.

How the decision settles the prediction

The prediction settles on the change in the deposit facility rate that results from the October meeting, compared with the rate just before it. The source is the ECB's own statement or release, and it can settle as soon as that is out. The matching answer settles at 100p and the other four at 0p (see what market resolution means).

From 2.50%, no change means the rate stays at 2.50%. A 25 bps increase means 2.75% and a 25 bps decrease means 2.25%. Because of the rounding below, the two 50+ answers start at a move of 37.5 bps.

The rules round an odd-sized move to the nearest 25 bps, and any move under 25 bps counts as 25. Take an invented rate of 3.00%: a cut to 2.85% counts as a 25 bps decrease, and a cut to 2.50% is a 50+ bps decrease.

A postponed meeting still counts if its decision lands before the next scheduled meeting begins. If the meeting is scrapped, or the decision slips past that point, no change settles at 100p. Rate changes made outside the meeting are ignored.

The prediction's page lists its close as 11:59 UTC on 29 October, which is 11:59 UK time and 76 minutes before the release, so check the page for the current close.

Dates to watch

• 16 October: Eurostat's full September inflation data, per its release calendar. It confirms or revises the 3.8% flash estimate, but the prediction does not settle on it.
• 28 and 29 October: the meeting. The decision, normally out at 13:15 UK time on 29 October, settles the prediction: if the rate stays at 2.50%, no change settles at 100p, and if it rises to 2.75%, the 25 bps increase answer does.
• 29 October, after the release: the press conference. The calendar gives no start time, and the September one was due to start 30 minutes after the decision, at 14:45 CET. It explains the decision, and the prediction can settle as soon as the release is out.
• 4 November: Eurostat's flash estimate for October inflation, after the decision.
• 16 and 17 December: the next monetary policy meeting. A decision then does not count for this prediction.

Before you trade

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Frequently asked questions

When is the next ECB interest rate decision?

Thursday 29 October 2026, with the decision normally out at 14:15 CET, which is 13:15 UK time. The one after is on 17 December 2026.

What is the ECB interest rate?

The deposit facility rate is 2.50%, the main refinancing rate 2.65% and the marginal lending rate 2.90%, all since 16 September 2026, according to the ECB.

Will the ECB raise or cut rates in October 2026?

Nobody outside the Governing Council can say, and the ECB is not pre-committing to a rate path. On versus at 08:08 UK time on 8 October 2026, a 25 bps increase was priced at 7.5p and a 25 bps decrease at 1p or less.

Does the ECB decision change UK interest rates?

Not directly. The ECB sets the key rates for the euro area, while the Bank of England sets UK Bank Rate, with its next decision due on 5 November 2026. Our guide to that decision covers it.

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