Will the UK Fall Into Recession in 2026? ONS Data and Key Dates

As of 10 October 2026 the UK is not in a recession on the official figures: the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on 30 September 2026 that UK output (gross domestic product, or GDP) grew by 0.6% in January to March and by 0.5% in April to June. The next quarterly figure, for July to September, is due on 12 November 2026, and at 07:55 UK time on 10 October 2026 the versus page for Will the UK fall into recession? showed Yes at 7p and No at 93p.

A Yes needs ONS to show two quarters in a row below zero within 2026. With both quarters so far positive, that could happen if July to September and October to December both fall, or if July to September falls alongside a large downward revision to April to June. A No cannot come before 12 February 2027. A price of 7p is the market's estimate of a 7% chance, not a promise. This guide is not a forecast or advice.

What ONS has reported so far

These are growth rates on the previous quarter, real and seasonally adjusted, from ONS's quarterly national accounts of 30 September 2026:

• January to March 2026 (Q1): 0.6%. The first estimate in May 2026 was also 0.6%, and later releases did not change it.
• April to June 2026 (Q2): 0.5%. The first estimate of 13 August 2026 was 0.4%, so ONS revised it up by 0.1 percentage points.

None of the six quarters from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026 in that release is below zero, and two (Q2 and Q4 2025) stand at exactly 0.0%. The Bank of England's minutes of 17 September 2026 give a staff projection of 0.4% growth for July to September, against 0.1% in its July report, with business surveys pointing to somewhat weaker growth.

What counts as a recession on versus

ONS's methodology page (last revised 11 November 2022) calls two or more consecutive quarters of contracting output a "technical" recession. The prediction adds this fine print, in our words:

• The quarters: two in a row, both inside 2026, which gives three possible pairs: Q1 and Q2, Q2 and Q3, or Q3 and Q4. A quarter counts only if ONS's figure, to one decimal place, is below zero, so 0.0% does not.
• The releases: only ONS's first quarterly estimate and its quarterly national accounts. Monthly estimates are ignored: ONS builds them from output alone (see its 11 September bulletin), whereas the quarterly figure balances three approaches to measuring GDP. Its monthly headlines also compare rolling three-month periods, not calendar quarters.
• The numbers: at each release, the latest estimates of the two quarters at that moment. A pair that was negative earlier but has since been revised up does not count. Once a release shows a negative pair, the Yes comes at once and later revisions do not undo it.

The matching answer settles at 100p and the other at 0p (what market resolution means explains the idea).

Two more predictions on UK growth

Both settle on ONS's first estimate only, and later revisions are ignored.

• How fast will the UK economy grow? uses the Q3 figure from the 12 November release, read to one decimal place, with seven answers from below 0.0% to 1.0% or higher. At 07:55 UK time on 10 October 2026 the page showed 3.6p for below 0.0% and 32.5p for 0.4% to 0.5%. Its page lists the end as 04:59 GMT on 13 November 2026, the morning after the release.
• What growth rate will the UK economy post? uses growth for 2026 as a whole, from the 12 February 2027 release; a figure that lands exactly on a boundary, such as 1.0%, goes to the higher bracket. ONS's 30 September figure for 2025 is 1.2%. At 07:55 UK time on 10 October 2026 the page showed 91.7p for 1% to 2% and 6.4p for 0% to 1%. Its page lists the end as 00:00 GMT on 12 February 2027, seven hours before the release. Annual growth compares whole years, so a year can grow with two negative quarters in it.

The dates, in UK time

UK clocks go back on 25 October 2026 and forward on 28 March 2027 (gov.uk), so 15 October is on BST and the later dates are on GMT.

• Thursday 15 October 2026, 07:00 BST: monthly estimate for August. None of the three predictions reads monthly figures, and ONS says the whole monthly series is open to revision here.
• Thursday 12 November 2026, 07:00 GMT: first quarterly estimate for July to September (Q3). The first release that counts for the recession prediction, and the one that settles the Q3 growth prediction. ONS's revisions policy lists Q3 itself as the first period revised, so Q2 is not due to change. A negative Q3 would be the first fall of 2026 and half of a possible pair, but cannot settle Yes alone. A Q3 of zero or above leaves both pairs that include it waiting on a later downward revision.
• Tuesday 22 December 2026, 07:00 GMT: quarterly national accounts for Q3. ONS lists Q1 2025 as the first period revised, so any 2026 quarter can move. A negative Q3 can be revised to zero or above, leaving no pair, and a non-negative one can go below zero. Q2 would need a downward revision of at least 0.6 percentage points to turn negative; the biggest first-to-latest change among the six quarters in ONS's revisions table is 0.3.
• Friday 12 February 2027, 07:00 GMT: first quarterly estimate for October to December (Q4). If Q3 and Q4 are both below zero the prediction resolves Yes at once, if both are positive it resolves No, and if only one is negative it stays open (unless a Q2 revised below zero already forms a pair with a negative Q3, which is a Yes). The release also settles the annual growth prediction, which reads the figure for 2026 as a whole. ONS's policy makes February an exception to the rule that earlier quarters are revised only in the national accounts, so earlier 2026 quarters may move too.
• Thursday 25 March 2027, 07:00 GMT: quarterly national accounts for Q4. The last scheduled release that counts. The prediction's page lists its end as 01:00 BST on 31 March 2027. If the recession prediction is still open, it settles on the latest estimates here, or on the data then available if the release has not appeared by 03:59 UK time (BST) on 1 May 2027, which the rules give as 04:59 CEST.

Two nearby dates settle other predictions: ONS inflation on 21 October and the Bank of England's decision on 5 November. Our guides to UK CPI inflation in 2026 and the Bank of England decision cover them.

Before you trade

You can lose the whole amount you put into a position: if the ONS figures go against your answer, it settles at 0p. A 2% transaction fee is added on top of the stake and shown before you confirm, and your loss can never exceed what you put in. versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143 (see its public register). Safer Play has deposit limits, loss limits and other tools.

Frequently asked questions

Is the UK in a recession in 2026?

Not on ONS's latest figures, which show growth of 0.6% in January to March and 0.5% in April to June 2026. ONS calls two or more consecutive quarters of falling output a "technical" recession.

When will we know if the UK is in a recession?

The July to September estimate arrives at 07:00 GMT on 12 November 2026. A Yes needs two negative quarters in a row, which on current figures can first happen on 12 February 2027, unless ONS revises earlier quarters below zero on 22 December.

Can a recession be revised away?

Yes. ONS says the UK's 2011 to 2012 recession was seen in real time and later revised away. On the versus prediction, two negative quarters that have been revised up by the time of a release do not count.

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