Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percentage change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is below 0.0 for two consecutive quarters at any point from Q1 through Q4 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to “No”. This market will use only the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered. Resolution is based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time each relevant release is published. Any two consecutive quarters showing qualifying negative GDP growth are enough for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of any earlier or later revisions. For example, if the qualifying estimate for Q2 2026 is negative when released, and the most recently available qualifying estimate for Q1 2026 is also negative at that time, the market resolves to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026 was initially reported as negative, but the most recently available qualifying estimate for Q1 2026 at the time of the Q2 release has since been revised positive, that will not qualify. This market will resolve immediately once a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026 is published, the market resolves to “No” at that point. If, at that time, the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative, the market remains open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release has still not been published by May 1, 2027 at 04:59 CEST, the market will resolve based on the qualifying data available then. The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its GDP first quarterly estimate, UK and GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
