ISM PMI for October 2026: UK Release Times and September Data

ISM, the Institute for Supply Management, releases its October 2026 Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UK time (GMT) on Monday 2 November and its October Services PMI at 15:00 UK time on Wednesday 4 November, each at 10:00am in New York. September's readings were 54.5 for manufacturing and 54.9 for services, and at 06:02 UK time on 27 October 2026 the versus page on an October factory reading from 54.0 to 54.9 showed 27.5p for Yes, the market's estimate of a 27.5% chance.

This guide is for readers in Great Britain and is not a forecast or advice. UK clocks went back on 25 October (GOV.UK) and US clocks follow on Sunday 1 November (NIST), so New York is five hours behind on both release days.

A survey of buyers, not an official statistic

ISM calls itself the world's first professional association for supply chain, founded in 1915 and based in Tempe, Arizona; it is not a government statistics office. Its reports, now called the ISM PMI Reports, are in its words “based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide”. Manufacturing normally comes out on the first business day of the following month, services on the third.

Panel members say whether orders, output, hiring and other measures rose, held or fell; each set of answers becomes a diffusion index: the share of positive answers plus half of those reporting no change. ISM says a reading above 50 shows the sector is “generally expanding” and one below 50 that it is generally contracting; the further from 50, the stronger the move. The Manufacturing PMI weights five sub-indexes equally and the Services PMI four. Supplier Deliveries is inverted: above 50 means slower deliveries.

What ISM published for September

The September 2026 Manufacturing PMI report, out on Thursday 1 October at 15:00 UK time (BST), put the index at 54.5, 0.1 below August's 54.6, a ninth straight month of expansion. New Orders read 55.3 (53.7 in August), Production 56.7 (58.3), Employment 52.7 (51.2), Supplier Deliveries 59.0 (59.3) and Prices 77.9 (71.1); Inventories, at 48.6, was the only one of the five PMI components below 50. ISM said 40% of panel comments were positive and 60% negative, with pricing volatility and tariffs raised most often in the negative ones.

The September 2026 Services PMI report followed on Monday 5 October, also at 15:00 UK time (BST): 54.9, 0.5 below August's 55.4 and a 27th month of expansion. Business Activity read 56.5 (61.7), New Orders 59.8 (60.9), Employment 50.1 (47.8), above 50 for the first time in three months, Supplier Deliveries 53.2 (51.3) and Prices 74.0 (72.6), the highest since July 2022. ISM's services committee chair named tariffs and fuel costs as the issues respondents cited most.

ISM's Prices indexes show how widely firms paid more, not how much more; for official inflation and jobs data see our guide to US CPI and our US jobs report guide.

How our predictions settle

versus lists ten Yes or No predictions on each October index: below 51.0, eight one-point bands from 51.0 to 51.9 up to 58.0 to 58.9, and 59.0 or higher. Both edges belong to the band, and as ISM prints one decimal place, any reading falls in exactly one. Only the headline October PMI counts, read as a plain number (54.5 percent in ISM's text is 54.5). ISM's report decides; the rules use the report's former name, the Report On Business.

The factory pages list their close as 06:00 UK time on Monday 2 November (1:00am in New York), nine hours before ISM publishes, so the close comes first and the answer follows from the 15:00 report. The services pages list theirs as 15:00 on 4 November, the minute that report is due. If ISM misses its date, the predictions wait for its next report of the same kind (1 December for manufacturing, 3 December for services); if October is still missing then, the most recent earlier month ISM has published decides.

At 06:02 UK time on 27 October 2026 the factory pages around September's 54.5 showed these prices for Yes:

• 52.0 to 52.9: 10.8p
• 53.0 to 53.9: 28p
• 54.0 to 54.9 (September's band): 27.5p
• 55.0 to 55.9: 14.5p
• 56.0 to 56.9: 14.3p

The services pages around September's 54.9, at the same time:

• 52.0 to 52.9: 15.6p
• 53.0 to 53.9: 25.5p
• 54.0 to 54.9 (September's band): 21.8p
• 55.0 to 55.9: 11.6p
• 56.0 to 56.9: 17.3p

Each band is its own prediction, so the prices need not add up to 100p (how to read market probabilities). The sets run from below 51.0 (factory, services) to 59.0 or higher (factory, services).

Release days, and what each band would mean

• Monday 2 November, 06:00 GMT: listed close of the factory predictions.
• Monday 2 November, 15:00 GMT: the October Manufacturing PMI, which decides all ten factory bands.
• Wednesday 4 November, 15:00 GMT: the October Services PMI and the listed close of the services predictions.
• Tuesday 1 December and Thursday 3 December, 15:00 GMT: the November reports on ISM's 2026 release calendar, and the fallback dates if an October figure is late.

By ISM's definitions, a factory reading from 54.0 to 54.9 would leave October close to September, and 55.0 or more would mean faster growth. A reading of 56.0 or more would top every month in ISM's past-year table, which ranges from 47.9 (December 2025) to 55.6 (July 2026). From 51.0 to 53.9, growth would have slowed from September's pace, and below 51.0 covers everything from barely growing to contraction, which ISM marks below 50.

Services starts on an edge: September's 54.9 tops its band, so 55.0 would already fall in the next one up. In the 12 months to September, services readings ranged from 52.0 (October 2025) to 56.1 (February 2026).

Before you trade

Each band settles at 100p or 0p, so you can lose the whole amount you put into a position. A transaction fee of 2% of the stake is added on top and shown before you confirm. While a prediction is open you can sell at the current price, and a loss can never exceed what you put in. versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143 (see its public register); deposit limits, loss limits, time outs and self exclusion are in Safer Play.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the ISM manufacturing PMI released in the UK?

The October report is due at 15:00 UK time (GMT) on Monday 2 November 2026, 10:00am in New York. The services report follows at 15:00 on Wednesday 4 November.

What does an ISM reading above 50 mean?

ISM says it indicates that the sector is generally expanding; below 50, generally contracting. The further from 50, the stronger the change.

Which figure settles the versus ISM predictions?

The headline October PMI to one decimal place, in ISM's report of 2 November (factory) or 4 November (services). If a report is late, the prediction waits until ISM's next report of the same kind is due, 1 December for factory and 3 December for services; if October is still missing by then, the latest earlier month ISM has published counts.

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