Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:01 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 29% chance and No at 71%.
YES if the US services PMI for October 2026 from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), published in its Services Report On Business that is scheduled for 4 November 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, is below 51.0; otherwise NO. The PMI is a diffusion index and is read as a plain number, even though ISM describes it with the word percent, and its one-decimal value is used exactly as published. If ISM does not publish the October figure on the scheduled date, the outcome waits until the next ISM Services report is due; if the figure is still missing then, the reading for the latest earlier month with published data is used. The official ISM report decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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