Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:15 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 20% chance and No at 80%.
YES if the US manufacturing PMI for October 2026 from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), published in its Manufacturing Report On Business that is scheduled for 2 November 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, is between 55.0 and 55.9, both included; otherwise NO. The PMI is a diffusion index and is read as a plain number, not a percentage, even though ISM uses the word percent, and its one-decimal value is used as published. A reading above 50 signals expansion and below 50 contraction. If ISM does not publish the October figure on the scheduled date, the outcome waits until the next ISM manufacturing report is due; if the figure is still missing then, the reading for the latest earlier month with published data is used. The official ISM report decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
