Bank of Japan Rate Decision: Held at 1.25% on 30 October 2026

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at around 1.25% on Friday 30 October 2026, by 8 votes to 1, with board member Takata Hajime outvoted on a proposal to raise it to around 1.5%. On versus at 06:11 UK time on 30 October 2026, the prediction on a rise of at least 50 basis points at the December meeting showed 4.6p for Yes, the market's estimate of a 4.6% chance.

This page is for readers in Great Britain, with facts checked at the Bank of Japan and Japan's Statistics Bureau on 30 October 2026. It is not a forecast or advice.

The guideline, and when it came out

The Statement on Monetary Policy keeps the guideline until the next meeting: the Bank will encourage the uncollateralised overnight call rate, charged on overnight loans between financial institutions without collateral, to stay at around 1.25%. The meeting ended at 11:55 Tokyo time, and the Bank gives 12:02 as the statement's release time, which was 03:02 UK time (GMT).

The rate began 2026 at around 0.75% and was raised twice, to around 1.0% on 16 June and to around 1.25% on 18 September, in force from 24 September. The Bank held at its other five meetings: January, March, April, July and now October (the Bank's 2026 policy releases).

Who voted which way

Governor Ueda Kazuo and seven other members backed the hold (the Bank writes family names first), among them Asada Toichiro and Sato Ayano, the two who had voted against the September rise. The statement records Takata's view that, with underlying inflation at the 2% target, the Bank had entered “a new phase” and should move its rate faster towards the neutral rate (the level that neither speeds up nor slows the economy), so that it could respond nimbly. His proposal was defeated.

Across this year's statements, Takata proposed a quarter-point rise at all five meetings where the Bank held: a record of votes, not a guide to December.

ETF sales speed up from January 2027

By a unanimous vote, the Board also sped up sales of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs), funds listed on the stock market. Sales began in January 2026 at a yearly pace the Bank puts at about 0.05% of market trading value; from January 2027 the pace is about 0.1%, which by the Bank's own calculation cuts the time needed to sell all its holdings from about 112 years to about 43.

What the Bank signals for the months ahead

The Bank's View, the part of the October Outlook Report released straight after the meeting, says the Bank “will continue to raise the policy interest rate” in response to the economy, prices and financial conditions, weighing the timing and pace; it names no meeting. It judges underlying inflation generally consistent with the 2% target and the risks to prices “skewed to the upside”; where it once paid close attention to prices falling short, it now warns of underlying inflation moving above 2%.

Board members' median forecasts for consumer prices excluding fresh food are 2.5% for fiscal 2026, 2.6% for fiscal 2027 and 2.0% for fiscal 2028. They leave out a proposed temporary cut in consumption tax on food and drink that the Diet, Japan's parliament, is still debating.

The four versus predictions after the meeting

Three versus predictions covered this meeting: rates left unchanged, a 25 bps rise and a rise of 50 bps or more (a basis point, bps, is a hundredth of a percentage point). Each compared the top of the policy rate after the meeting with the level just before it. Their end date was 00:00 UK time (GMT) on 30 October, and their pages now show them as settled (what market resolution means). The fact to compare with their answers is in the statement: around 1.25% before the meeting, around 1.25% after it.

The fourth, Will the Bank of Japan raise rates by 50+ bps on 18 Dec?, is open. At 06:11 UK time on 30 October 2026 its page showed 4.6p for Yes and 99.3p for No; separate prices need not add up to 100p (how to read market probabilities).

It looks only at the December decision, measured from the rate going into that meeting: a rise of 50 bps or more is Yes; a hold, a smaller rise or a cut is No. Odd sizes are rounded: a move below 25 bps is treated as a quarter-point move in the same direction, larger ones go to the nearest quarter point, and an exact half step rounds up in size (37.5 bps counts as 50). If the Bank ever set a range, only its upper end would count. The Bank's own releases decide. A postponed meeting still counts if its decision is out before the January 2027 meeting opens on 21 January (Tokyo date); otherwise, as with a cancelled meeting, the result is no change, and moves between meetings are ignored. The end date is 00:00 UK time (GMT) on Friday 18 December, 09:00 in Tokyo on the meeting's second day.

Milestones between now and December

Times are UK time (GMT), nine hours behind Tokyo.

• Monday 2 November, 05:00: the full Outlook Report (14:00 in Tokyo), with the reasoning behind the forecasts.
• Friday 6 November, around 16:00: the text of Governor Ueda's IMF Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture in Washington, D.C. (around 1:00 on 7 November in Tokyo); a speech cannot change the rate, but it can show how the Governor reads the outlook.
• Monday 9 November, 23:50: the Summary of Opinions from this meeting (08:50 on 10 November in Tokyo), short summaries of the opinions given at the meeting, without names, and the closest look at the debate before the minutes.
• Monday 16 November, 04:00: the text of a speech by Takata to the Tokushima Association of Corporate Executives (13:00 in Tokyo), where the member who proposed 1.5% may set out his reasoning.
• Friday 20 November (Tokyo date): national consumer prices for October (Statistics Bureau schedule). The September figures, published on 23 October, put prices excluding fresh food, the measure in the Bank's forecasts, 2.1% above a year earlier (summary in Japanese).
• Thursday 17 and Friday 18 December: the last meeting of 2026, without an Outlook Report; its decision is the only one the December prediction looks at.
• Tuesday 22 December, 23:50: the minutes of this October meeting (08:50 on 23 December in Tokyo), a fuller record of the discussion, published after the December decision.

The dates come from the Bank's meeting schedule and release calendar, which says dates can change without notice.

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Frequently asked questions

What did the Bank of Japan decide on 30 October 2026?

It kept the uncollateralised overnight call rate at around 1.25% by 8 votes to 1, with Takata Hajime proposing around 1.5%. In a separate, unanimous vote it chose to sell its ETF holdings faster from January 2027.

What is the Bank of Japan interest rate now?

Around 1.25%, set on 18 September 2026 and in force since 24 September; the October meeting left it there.

When is the next Bank of Japan meeting?

On Thursday 17 and Friday 18 December 2026. The first meeting of 2027 follows on 21 and 22 January.

Will the Bank of Japan raise rates in December?

Only the Policy Board knows until its December statement. The Bank says it will keep raising its rate in response to the economy and prices, without naming a meeting; at 06:11 UK time on 30 October 2026 the versus page on a December rise of 50 bps or more showed 4.6p for Yes.

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