Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:38 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 95% chance and No at 5%.
YES if the Bank of Japan leaves the upper end of its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at its October 2026 monetary-policy meeting, whose Statement on Monetary Policy is due on 30 October 2026 (Tokyo time); otherwise NO. The rate decided at that meeting is compared with the level in force just before it. A change that is not a whole multiple of 25 basis points is rounded up in size to the next 25-basis-point step, so even a move of 12.5 basis points in either direction counts as a change and the answer is NO. The result can be settled as soon as the statement for that meeting is published. The Bank of Japan's official website (boj.or.jp), including its meeting schedule and the Statement on Monetary Policy, decides; reliable news coverage may also be used. If no statement for the October 2026 meeting has been released by 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the next Bank of Japan monetary-policy meeting on its official calendar, the rate counts as unchanged and the answer is YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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