Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:34 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This prediction looks at the Bank of Japan's target for the uncollateralised overnight call rate as set at its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Policy Board, scheduled for 17 and 18 December 2026. The change is counted in basis points against the level in force just before that meeting. YES if the change decided there is a rise of 50 basis points or more; if the decision is any other change, NO. If the rate is ever set as a range with a lower and an upper limit, only the move in the upper limit counts. A move that is not a multiple of 25 basis points is rounded: anything smaller than 25 basis points counts as 25 in the same direction, and anything larger goes to the nearest multiple of 25, rounding away from zero when it sits exactly halfway (a 37.5 basis point move counts as 50). Any move of 50 basis points or more in one direction counts as a 50-or-more move in that direction. If the meeting is pushed back but its decision still comes out before the next scheduled Bank of Japan policy meeting starts, that later decision is used. If the meeting is called off, or no decision is out before the next scheduled Bank of Japan policy meeting starts, the outcome counts as no change. Emergency or unscheduled moves made outside this meeting are ignored. The Bank of Japan's own publications decide, such as its statement or release on this decision, and the prediction can be settled as soon as one of them is out with the decision. Meeting dates are read in Japan Standard Time (JST, UTC+9), as on the Bank of Japan's official schedule.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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