LMArena Leaderboard October 2026: Where the Top Text Scores Stand

In the 2 October 2026 update of Arena's text leaderboard, the highest overall score with style control turned off is 1533, held by Google's gemini-4-argon-high, which Arena marks as preliminary. That is above two of the seven answers on the versus prediction about the best Arena score (1520 and 1530) and below the other five.

LMArena, which now calls itself Arena, ranks AI models by people's votes: two anonymous models answer the same prompt and the voter picks the better answer. One live prediction on versus asks whether any AI model will reach a given overall Arena score by 31 December 2026, with answers from 1520 to 1700. This guide covers the October scores, how the prediction settles and what a position can cost you.

The Short Answer

• Top score on 2 October 2026. gemini-4-argon-high from Google: 1533 with style control turned off (±9, from 4,932 votes), 1525 in the default view with style control on.
• A change at the top. In the 25 September update claude-opus-5.5-high from Anthropic led on 1518. It now shows 1512, second, and Anthropic models hold places 2 to 6.
• Two answers behind it, five ahead. The answers are 1520, 1530, 1540, 1550, 1600, 1650 and 1700, and several can be right. 1533 is above the first two and 7 points below 1540.
• The prices at 07:11 on 7 October 2026 (UK time): 23p (a 23% chance) for the 1550 answer and 3.2p (a 3.2% chance) for the 1700 answer. A price is the market's estimate between 0p and 100p.
• You can lose the whole amount. A winning contract settles at 100p and a losing one at 0p, and a position that settles at 0p is lost in full.

Arena and Its Score

According to its About page, Arena (formerly LMArena) was created by researchers from UC Berkeley and was previously known as Chatbot Arena. The old lmarena.ai address now forwards to arena.ai. Arena's FAQ says votes are turned into scores with the Bradley-Terry model, which it likens to the Elo ratings used in chess, and that only votes cast while the models are anonymous count. Next to each score the leaderboard shows a margin, such as ±9, and the number of votes.

What Style Control Changes

Arena's research on style found that how an answer looks affects votes, so it adjusts scores for answer length and for the headers, bold text and lists in an answer. The default view uses Style Control. To see scores without it, choose None under Adjustments, which opens the view with style control off. The prediction settles on that view. In the 2 October update the same model leads both views, but its score is 1525 with style control and 1533 without it, and the order below it differs.

Where the Top Text Scores Stand in October 2026

The top five in the Text Arena overall ranking with style control turned off, in the update dated 2 October 2026, which the page says drew on 8,626,731 votes across 413 models:

1. gemini-4-argon-high (Google): 1533, ±9, from 4,932 votes, marked preliminary.
2. claude-opus-5.5-high (Anthropic): 1512, ±9, from 4,552 votes.
3. claude-fable-5.1-max (Anthropic): 1511, ±6.
4. claude-opus-5-max (Anthropic): 1507, ±5.
5. claude-opus-4-6-high (Anthropic): 1503, ±3.

According to Arena's leaderboard changelog, gemini-4-argon-high joined the Text Arena leaderboard on 30 September 2026. The same day Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, saying it is rolling out first to a set of trusted cyber defenders, with wider access to follow and no date given. The Gemini 4 release date guide covers what Google has said.

Arena's leaderboard policy says a score built on votes gathered before a model's public release is marked preliminary until enough fresh votes arrive after it. Scores also move as votes build up: claude-opus-5.5-high showed 1518 from 2,307 votes on 25 September and 1512 from 4,552 votes on 2 October.

How This Prediction Settles

Every market on versus names the source that settles it before you trade. Here the rules name the Text Arena leaderboard and its overall score with style control turned off, and they say nothing about the preliminary label. Each number is a separate answer with its own price. The cut off is 05:59 Central European time on 1 January 2027, which is 04:59 UK time. If any model reaches at least the number before then, a contract on that answer settles at 100p; if none does, at 0p.

Because the answers are thresholds, more than one can be right. A top score of 1545 would make 1520, 1530 and 1540 right, and if no model had reached 1520 none would be. So a higher number can never be more likely than a lower one, and the prices do not have to add up to 100p.

A Worked Example

Say the 1550 answer trades at 30p. You put 600p into it, which buys 20 contracts. The transaction fee is 2% of the stake, added on top, so it comes to 12p and 612p leaves your balance. If a model reaches 1550 before the cut off, the 20 contracts settle at 100p each, 2,000p in total. If none does, they settle at 0p and the 612p is gone. While the market is open you can sell at the current price: at 15p, the 20 contracts give you 300p back, a loss but a smaller one than 0p. There is no leverage and no margin call, so the most the position can cost you is the 612p you saw before confirming.

Dates and Events That Could Move the Prices

• The next leaderboard update. The page shows the date of its latest update, 2 October 2026 when checked on 7 October. Arena's changelog lists each new model it adds.
• A wider Gemini 4 Argon release. Google has given no date. A separate versus prediction asks whether Google will release Gemini 4 to the public by 31 October 2026.
• More votes. gemini-4-argon-high and claude-opus-5.5-high have under 5,000 votes each, against tens of thousands for older models, so their scores can move more.
• 1 January 2027, 04:59 UK time. The cut off for every answer.

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Where to Find This Prediction

versus is a prediction market app across politics, finance, sport, AI, crypto and entertainment. The current predictions include AI questions such as this one. How it works follows one position from opening to settlement.

versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143, which you can check on the Commission's public register. Positions settle in ordinary money, not cryptocurrency, and customer money is held separately from company money.

Frequently asked questions

What is the top score on the Arena text leaderboard?

In the update of 2 October 2026 it is 1533 for Google's gemini-4-argon-high with style control turned off, and 1525 for the same model in the default view with style control on.

Is the top score final?

No. Arena marks the 1533 as preliminary, it rests on 4,932 votes with a margin of ±9, and Arena's policy says preliminary scores stay marked until enough fresh votes arrive after public release.

Can a model be removed from the Arena leaderboard?

Arena's policy says it removes a model when conditions are not met, for example if its API is not accessible for 30 days after launch. How the prediction would treat a removed model is a question for its rules.

The Bottom Line

On 2 October 2026 the top overall text score on Arena, with style control turned off, was 1533, above the 1520 and 1530 answers and below the other five. Whether any model reaches 1540 or more by the end of 2026 depends on releases and votes nobody can know in advance, and any position can settle at 0p, so only put in what you are comfortable losing. Prediction markets are entertainment with real money at stake, not a way to make money.

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