Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 19% chance and No at 81%.
This prediction uses NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GISTEMP v4, run by NASA GISS) for October 2026: the global land-and-ocean temperature anomaly, given in hundredths of a degree Celsius under Oct for 2026 in NASA's global land-ocean data table on its GISTEMP website (data.giss.nasa.gov). YES if that October 2026 anomaly, read to the nearest 0.01°C, is above 1.49°C, that is 1.50°C or higher. NO if it lies in any other band. Each band includes both of its endpoints, and the bands together cover every possible value, so exactly one band is YES. The first figure NASA publishes for October 2026 settles the prediction as soon as it appears; a later revision by NASA changes nothing. If NASA has published no October 2026 figure by 11:59 PM ET on 1 December 2026, the lowest band (below 1.30°C) is YES and every other band is NO. If NASA's Global Temperature Index is permanently discontinued, other official NASA information may be used instead.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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