Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 51% chance and No at 49%.
YES requires Anthropic to make a Sonnet model numbered 5.6 or higher publicly accessible during the interval starting at 15:07:52.867648 UTC on 29 September 2026 and ending on 31 December 2026, ET. The cutoff covers that entire ET calendar day. If no eligible release occurs within the interval, the result is NO. The model name or identifier must contain Sonnet and a version of at least 5.6. Ignore differences in case, prefixes, suffixes, dated identifiers and descriptors. A new whole-number generation, such as Sonnet 6, counts. A name without Sonnet, a version below 5.6, or any snapshot, promotion or rollout of such an older version does not. An open beta or rolling waitlist open to the public qualifies. Closed tests and private access do not. Anthropic must either clearly announce that public access has launched or make the model publicly accessible and explicitly identify it on the official website. Mistaken labels, placeholders and inaccessible models fail this test. Anthropic’s official information is primary, with reputable reporting used for additional verification.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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