Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 11 October 2026, 22:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 12% chance and No at 88%.
YES means Etna has an eruption rated VEI 2 or higher from this prediction's start through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise resolve NO. A qualifying eruption can settle YES immediately. If an eruption is still underway at the cutoff, keep the prediction open for up to 14 more calendar days to establish its VEI. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, including its 2026 page, is primary. If it is permanently unavailable, or the ongoing eruption still lacks a rating after that period, use a consensus of USGS, volcanic observatories, or scientific reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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