Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile (approximately 80 km) radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, the epicentre must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicentre to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 05:59 CET/CEST on January 8, 2027, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
