Will the US unemployment rate for Oct (or latest) be 3.8% or lower by 4 Dec?

As of 23 October 2026, 23:40 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.

Category

economy

Closes

2026-11-06 13:30 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-23 23:40 UTC

YES if the seasonally adjusted U-3 jobless rate for October 2026, as first published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, is 3.8% or lower; any other figure gives NO. The one-decimal figure in Table A-15 of that report counts as soon as it is issued. The initial release is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on 6 November 2026, and any revision after that first release is ignored. If no October 2026 figure has been published by 4 December 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, use the latest month published by then instead. The BLS Employment Situation release and its Table A-15 decide.

Answer options

• Yes<1%
• No>99%

Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.

Reported by versus Markets

Pulse

• US Jobs Report 6 November 2026: Unemployment Rate Predictions