Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 23 October 2026, 23:38 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if the seasonally adjusted U-3 jobless rate for October 2026, as first published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report, is exactly 3.9%; any other figure gives NO. The one-decimal figure in Table A-15 of that report counts as soon as it is issued. The initial release is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on 6 November 2026, and any revision after that first release is ignored. If no October 2026 figure has been published by 4 December 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, use the latest month published by then instead. The BLS Employment Situation release and its Table A-15 decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
