Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 23 October 2026, 23:38 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
YES if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026, as first published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in its Employment Situation report, is exactly 4.4%. The one-decimal value in Table A-15 governs. BLS first publishes the October figure in the Employment Situation release scheduled for 6 November 2026 at 8:30 AM ET; later revisions do not count. If the October figure is not published by the scheduled release date of the November 2026 Employment Situation report, 4 December 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, use the latest month published by that deadline instead. Thus the final cutoff is 4 December 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The BLS Employment Situation report and Table A-15 decide; official BLS information is controlling.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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