Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 23 October 2026, 23:34 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in Table A-15 of the BLS Employment Situation report for October 2026 is 4.6% or higher, using the one-decimal value first published for that month. The October report is scheduled for 6 November 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, and later revisions do not count. If October’s value has not been published by the scheduled November report cutoff, use the latest month with a published U-3 rate by 4 December 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. That latest-month fallback uses the same 4.6% threshold. Official information in the BLS Employment Situation report, including Table A-15, decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
