Meta Watermelon Release Date: What Is Confirmed and What Is Not

As of 10 October 2026, Meta has given no release date for Watermelon, but its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, said in an interview published on 8 September that the model was coming soon. On versus, the Yes answer to whether Meta releases it to the public by 31 October 2026 stood at 70.5p, a 70.5% chance, at 07:55 UK time on 10 October 2026. The only month on offer, October, comes from a press report citing internal documents that Meta has not confirmed.

A price runs from 0p to 100p and is the market's estimate of the chance (how to read market probabilities): a winning contract settles at 100p and a losing one at 0p. Prices can move quickly, so any single reading is a snapshot.

Reported, but not confirmed

On the evening of 2 July 2026, New York time, Business Insider reported, citing sources, that Meta's superintelligence chief, Alexandr Wang, told staff in an internal meeting that the next model, codenamed Watermelon, was in training. That is the earliest report we found. Business Insider said Meta declined to comment. On 24 August 2026 The Information reported, citing internal documents, that Meta was targeting October for the model. Meta has not confirmed the October target. The codename itself is another matter: Zuckerberg used it on the record on 8 September, as the list below shows.

The word Watermelon is absent from the Meta pages checked. A search of Meta's newsroom on 10 October 2026 found nothing, and the name does not appear in the transcripts of its results calls of 28 January, 29 April and 29 July 2026 or in the 2026 posts on its AI research site.

On the record at Meta

• 8 April 2026: Meta introduced Muse Spark, the first model of its Muse series, in a newsroom post and a research post. Both say larger models are in development.
• 29 July 2026: on its second quarter results call, Mark Zuckerberg said Meta is scaling much larger and more advanced models. He gave no name, month or date.
• 5 August 2026: the Muse Spark 1.2 post says larger models are on the way.
• 2 September 2026: the Muse Spark 1.3 post lists bigger models on Meta's roadmap. The same day Mark Zuckerberg's post on Threads ended: “Next up [watermelon emoji] and Muse Spark open weights releases coming soon.” Neither gives a date.
• 8 September 2026: in an interview with Alex Heath for his Sources podcast, published the day Meta launched its Muse agent, Zuckerberg said Meta had Watermelon “coming soon” and, later, that it was “shipping soon”. He gave no date. He also said Muse Spark 1.3 comes from a smaller base model with the internal codename Avocado, and called Watermelon a significantly more advanced one.

The emoji was a nod to the codename, and six days later the interview published on 8 September put the name on the record in Zuckerberg’s own words (recorded, Alex Heath writes, on the Friday before, 4 September). On 10 October, Meta's page on its Muse agent still called Muse Spark its most capable model to date. None of this gives a date.

What counts as a release

The prediction is Will Meta release its Watermelon AI model by 31 Oct? Paraphrased, its rules ask for four things (how settlement works).

• The right model. The model codenamed Watermelon, under whatever name it launches. It counts when Meta itself, or reliable reports in broad agreement, tie that codename to the model.
• Real public access. Live and open to anyone. An open beta, or a waitlist that anyone can join and that admits people as it goes, counts. A closed beta or private access does not.
• Clear evidence. Either Meta announces the release and says anyone can use it, or anyone can use it and Meta's official website labels it plainly as the release. A page labelled wrongly, filler text, or a version number that matches nothing the public can use does not count.
• The deadline. The last moment is the close of 31 October 2026 in New York. Meta's own information is the main basis for settling, and reliable reports are a cross-check, so press reports alone would not settle it.

Some cases are not spelled out. The rules say nothing about price, so it is unclear whether a launch for paying subscribers only would count as open to the general public; Meta's official information would be the main basis. A limited preview for chosen testers or companies is private access and does not count. Muse Spark's API began that way on 8 April, while its Meta AI app and website ran it from day one, with new features rolling out in the US first. That looks like public access, since the rules name no country, but only Meta's official information would settle it.

Dates that matter

We found no Meta event announced for October 2026.

• Any day: an announcement from Meta or Mark Zuckerberg. One that opens a larger model or a waitlist to anyone would meet the main test if tied to the codename; a private preview would not.
• Around mid-October, if the pattern holds: Meta's announcement of the date of its third quarter results call. Its three 2026 notices came 14 to 16 days ahead (14 January, 13 April and 14 July), and on 10 October its investor events page listed nothing upcoming.
• Late October, unconfirmed: the call itself, where Meta may or may not discuss models. Meta held its third quarter calls on 25 October 2023, 30 October 2024 and 29 October 2025.
• 31 October, 23:59 UTC: the close shown on the prediction's page. UK clocks go back on 25 October (GOV.UK), so that is 23:59 UK time.
• 1 November, 04:00 UK time: the end of 31 October in New York, the cut-off in the rules, about four hours after the page's close. New York is still on daylight saving time until 02:00 that day (NIST). With no qualifying release by then, the prediction settles No.

Before you trade

You can lose the whole amount you put into a position: if the prediction settles against your answer, it pays 0p. versus adds a 2% transaction fee on top of the stake and shows it before you confirm, and while a prediction is open you can sell at the current price. Safer Play brings together deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time out, self exclusion and GAMSTOP.

versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143, which you can check on its public register. How it works follows one position from opening to settlement. This guide is for readers in Great Britain. Our guide to another release-date prediction covers a similar question.

Frequently asked questions

When will Meta release Watermelon?

Meta has not given a date. Mark Zuckerberg hinted at the model with an emoji on 2 September and said in an interview published on 8 September that it was coming soon, but no Meta page checked gives a date. The only month on offer, October, comes from one press report that Meta has not confirmed.

Is Watermelon the same as Muse Spark?

No. Zuckerberg said in the 8 September interview that Muse Spark 1.3 comes from a smaller base model codenamed Avocado, and he described Watermelon as a bigger model still to come. It may carry another public name when it launches, which the rules allow for.

What time is the deadline in UK time?

The rules count to the close of 31 October 2026 in New York, which is 04:00 UK time on 1 November. The prediction's page lists its close as 23:59 UTC on 31 October.

18+ only. Trade responsibly. BeGambleAware.org and GAMSTOP.