Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom formally announces the transfer of sovereignty over any area of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An official announcement from the government of the United Kingdom confirming that sovereignty over any part of the Falkland Islands has been or will be legally and officially transferred to Argentina is required. Negotiations, announcements, or claims solely from Argentina, or other actions that do not definitively announce the transfer of sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that the United Kingdom and Argentina have agreed to a binding agreement or legal instrument resulting in a defined area of the Falkland Islands coming under the formal sovereignty of Argentina will also qualify, even if the effective date of the sovereignty transfer occurs after the market deadline. The primary resolution source will be official government statements from the United Kingdom and Argentina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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