Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 26% chance and No at 74%.
YES requires at least two qualifying hurricane landfalls within the contiguous United States from 24 July 2026 at 16:04 UTC through 31 December 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise the answer is NO. Count the physical time of landfall, even if confirmation is published later. Landfalls are counted, not separate storms: one hurricane can supply both landfalls if the NHC lists them as distinct landfalls. A qualifying landfall occurs when a tropical cyclone’s surface centre crosses the coastline while its maximum sustained wind is at least 74 mph, equivalent to Saffir–Simpson Category 1 or stronger. The National Hurricane Center’s official advisories and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports provide the evidence. Separate landfalls by one storm each count if the NHC identifies them separately. Going out over open water and coming ashore again counts again only with that NHC designation; a continuous overland track counts once. An initial NHC advisory identifying an eligible landfall can establish that landfall even if later advisories, withdrawals, best-track revisions or reanalysis lower its reported intensity. A later advisory or correction that identifies an additional eligible landfall omitted initially adds it to the total. Do not subtract a qualifying initial report because of a later downgrade.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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