Who will TIME name the year's most influential figure?

As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Zohran Mamdani at a 28% chance, ahead of Pope Leo XIV at 10% and Donald Trump at 8%.

Category

pop_culture

Closes

2026-12-31 00:00 UTC

Answers

22

Chances as of

2026-10-11 00:27 UTC

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person, group, entity or thing is named TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they or it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. The following additional rules apply. If more than one person is explicitly named Person of the Year, each of them will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named as such, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as Person of the Year and appear on any official TIME cover announcing the award. For example, in 2025, when TIME Person of the Year was "Architects of AI", the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to "Yes", as he was associated with the concept and pictured on the cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year and ChatGPT were shown on the cover, that would not qualify ChatGPT, because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity or thing, such as artificial intelligence, listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to "No", because they are conceptually linked but not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly recognised concept, group, entity or thing, such as 2011's "The Protester" or 2017's "The Silence Breakers", the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of that language. In such cases, listed concepts, groups or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can reasonably be understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define the award. For example, the option for "The Me Too Movement" would have resolved to "Yes" in 2017. If, for any reason, TIME's Person of the Year has not been announced by 05:59 CET/CEST on July 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year, although the TIME Person of the Year feature article may also be used.