Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 20:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
This prediction is about the Legislative Council (upper house) of Victoria, Australia, as elected at the state election scheduled for 28 November 2026. YES if the Greens finishes first on the ranking below; otherwise NO. Each seat is credited to the party name printed on the ballot for the elected candidate or that candidate's group. Liberal–National means the Coalition: it combines every seat won by Liberal or Nationals candidates or by joint Liberal–National groups, whatever their behaviour in parliament, and it also combines their first-preference votes. Groups are ranked by total seats across all eight regions; a tie on seats is broken by formal first-preference votes across all eight regions, counting above-the-line votes for the group and below-the-line first preferences for its candidates, and any remaining tie by alphabetical order of the listed names (Greens, Labor, Liberal–National, One Nation). If another group ranks first, NO. If the result is not definitive by 11:59 PM ET on 31 March 2027, NO. The result is taken from consistent reports by reputable outlets; if those are unclear, the official tally of the Victorian Electoral Commission (vec.vic.gov.au) decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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