Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
YES applies if the House of Representatives of Japan chosen at the general election of 8 February 2026, which is the lower house sitting when this prediction opens, is formally dissolved no later than 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The earlier dissolution in January 2026 that led to that election does not count. Only a formal legal act that dissolves the chamber qualifies; a proposal or plan to dissolve, a prime minister's resignation, an announced intention to call an election, or an ordinary adjournment or end of a Diet session does not. If no qualifying dissolution happens by the deadline, or it happens later, the answer is NO. Official information from Japan's government decides; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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