Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Iran legally recognises marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran, before 05:59 CET on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran's legal system and must permit same-sex couples to enter into a legally valid marriage recognised by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the deadline above. The legalisation of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad, without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
