Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Above 3,510 ft at a 52% chance, ahead of 3,500 to 3,510 ft (minimum elevation) at 48% and 3,490 to 3,500 ft (minimum elevation) at 1%.
This prediction is about the lowest water-surface elevation of Lake Powell, in feet above sea level at Glen Canyon Dam, across every daily reading dated from 17 August 2026 through 31 March 2027. The answer whose range contains that lowest daily value is YES and every other answer is NO. Lowest level 3,510 ft or higher is YES if the lowest value is 3,510.00 ft or more. Lowest level 3,500 to under 3,510 ft is YES if it is at least 3,500.00 ft but below 3,510.00 ft. Lowest level 3,490 to under 3,500 ft is YES if it is at least 3,490.00 ft but below 3,500.00 ft. Lowest level below 3,490 ft is YES if it is under 3,490.00 ft. Each lower bound belongs to its range and each upper bound does not, so exactly one answer is YES. No answer is settled before the period ends, since a lower reading can still come later. The deciding record is the daily minimum elevation of Lake Powell, measured at Glen Canyon Dam, in the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's (USBR) data on data.usbr.gov (catalog 2362, item 508). Those figures are provisional: the lowest daily value they show at 11:59 PM ET on 15 April 2027 is final, and any revision published after that date does not change the result. Daily figures from lakepowell.water-data.com may be consulted, but where they differ from the USBR data, the USBR data prevail. If USBR publishes a figure that would settle the prediction but is plainly wrong because of a technical or operational fault or unauthorised tampering, settlement may wait up to seven calendar days (ET) after that release for a corrected figure, and a correction published within that time is used. If none appears, it is then decided whether the original figure can stand or whether another step is needed to settle the prediction fairly.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
